Excellent post, let me add to it if I may

Quote
alyoshamucci
I think his odds of playing next year are 90+%

2025 is 40-50%.

I think this year we're a bubble team, next year we can make a run.


That said, the crop is special.

Now, given the rules in place, and the bunching at the position, with maybe 8 guys who could carry a grade in the top 32 on different years, I'd suspect that at least a couple kids go back to school.

I don't believe Drake Maye is one. I think he comes out and goes 2-3 overall.
I don't believe Caleb Williams is one even with his demands. I think the Raiders are prepared to meet them. I also am not worried about his bad games, USC lacks defense and actually doesn't have much offensive talent in my opinion and he's trying to do too much.

Thats the top 2. Young studs ready to roll.

Williams is 1 and Maye is 2 on my list, for now. Love Williams talent, not sure I love where his head is at and his father talking. Maye just had a miserable weekend, but he's been remarkably consistent.

Now we have, in my opinion, a mashup of Heisman hopefuls with Michael Penix Jr. and JJ McCarthy. Penix HAS to come out. McCarthy does not, so I would expect him to have a tough decision ... come out and go between 8-15, or go back to school and possibly go 1 overall in 25.'

Penix isn't for everyone. He doesn't run like he did 4 years ago. He's a lefty, and he's 24. But for me he checks all the boxes. Game winning drives, huge throws, creating momentum with his personality on the sidelines ...

McCarthy is really hard to not like. He's playing in an NFL offense under an NFL head coach. He's making reads and decisions ... and he's a heck of an athlete. He's the type of QB I would want. I have NOT seen him this year ... or he might have moved into the top group.

That's the next 2, with one maybe going back to school to shoot for the top.

Penix is not my cup of tea. Lefty pocket passer with a ton of arm talent, but will be 24 right before or after the draft. So man playing amongst boys? Add to that a myriad of injuries including 2 ACLs. I think he is a mid ceiling, high floor type if his body holds up. If you draft him in the 1st round, he'll be 29 before he is eligible for his 2nd contract. That seems wild to me. He's my #5

As most know that have read me, I am a huge McCarthy fan. I said in a post last year that he gives off Burrow vibes. Biggest difference is the offense they played in. Harbaugh, as much as I don't like him, is a great coach for QBs. He's athletic and can make plays off script outsider of the pocket, but isn't what I'd call a running QB. Not a huge arm but plenty to make every throw. He just seems to have that it factor. He's my #3 right now and probably the heisman fav. I can see him going back to make a run at the top of next years QB list with Sanders.

Next 3 are more iffy ...

Riley Leonard
Quin Ewers
Sheduer Sanders

Riley Leonard has changed Duke along with the defensive coach Elko. He got dinged up in the Notre Dame game so he couldn't use his heels against FSU, but played hurt anyway. If I was his agent, there's no reason to come out now. Go back to school, maybe pick up a WR in the portal (Though Duke is tough academically) and stay healthy for a year and take a shot at the top 5 or 10.

Shed Sanders ... no reason to come out. He can make money in college, doesn't need the money anyway. And truthfully, he needs another year. He goes back, gets the program stabilized in the Big 12 ... works with young talented receivers, he could go #1 if things swing right.

Quin Ewers ... just got a shoulder sprain. If this was a perfect world for him, he'd go back to school or transfer to Washington. He has top 10 talent IMO. He has trained under Sarkisian, who has often met with McVay to discuss concepts. Ewers handles a complex offense, and beat Alabama. But ... he has Arch Manning behind him. I have no idea if he's being nudged to move on or not.
If he were to come out and we drafted him at 20-30, I would think it to be an unbelievably smart move for our franchise.

I think I like Leonard more than I liked Daniels when he was at Duke. He's a gamer. He's my #7 QB right now. worry about his upside.
Sanders is going back to school, not just because his dad needs him to stay, but because he needs another year playing bigtime competition. But he looks like everything you want in a NFL QB. If he came out and the Rams drafted him to learn behind Stafford for a year, wouldn't be the worst thing ever.
Ewers is another favorite of mine. He's a gunslinger with some athleticism to boot. He's my #4. I think he comes out, unless his shoulder is worse than thought.


My last 2 possible redshirt starters are
Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward. Daniels has gorwn a ton this year and seems to be really capable passing the ball and has 4.4 flat top end speed. I have not seen enough of Cam Ward yet, but from what I've been reading he deserves to be here in redshirt land. Daniels HAS to come out.

Cam Ward is just too inconsistent for my taste.
Daniels is a stud, he is flat out lighting it up this year, something like 28 tds to 2 ints with 5 more tds on the ground. Averaging 70% completion and 300 plus air yards and 65ish on the ground. He's literally been good for 400 yards of offense a game and 4 TDs. Big arm, athletic as any in the class. His accuracy and ball placement are improving. He'll be a "climber" come draft time. redshirt senior, he has to come out I'd think.


Backups ...
Bo Nix. His mistakes are too bad. His inaccurate throws are too far of, and he tries to do too much. His ceiling is Case Keenum/Baker Mayfield on bad days.
Sam Hartman has looked good this year in a new offense, and could crep up higher, but I still have the feeling he's limited.
Jordan Travis ... see Bo Nix.

Nix cannot win big games on the road and seems like a product of the Duck system. Do not like his ceiling. Career backup with spot start ability. Hartman is fine, but noothing he does wows me. So another high end backup? Travis does zero for me.

Spencer Rattler is actually more of a target for me if we want a backup.

I think Tyler Van Dyke goes back to school.

And again, as I am a broken record, why is no one talking about Austin Reed on WKY?

I liked what I saw from Michael Pratt out of Tulane. Good size and is a dual threat. They let him throw from bootlegs a bunch and he looked good. Not sure about his arm strength though. Need to see him again.


So in short, if many go back to school, then many are available next year and we aim for that. If many come out, I'm looking to draft a clipboard holder.