Quote
merlin
I am certain you are aware that if they were to move up and hit on a great player that value would more than compensate for the loss of draft capital to move up. The problem is that such a move has to hit, which is very hard to do as it pertains to great players.
1st round picks historically are just short of 50% iirc, when looking at them for bust rate. But if you were to try to set a percentage based on finding of great players, and for definition on great let us say just those who reach multiple Pro Bowls, it would certainly dive significantly. If you were to look at it based on Hall of Fame players then you're talking quite miniscule a percentage I am sure.
So looking at your statement logically I think it's fair to say that any trade up is unlikely to work in our favor. But to make it a blanket statement is to set yourself up to be wrong, because there is that chance the Rams see a guy they think will be a great player sliding and go get him and hit on the pick.
I know, I know. Sometimes my mild case of Aspergers kicks in on these types of topics. But I often try to fight the building of consensus when it seems to be based on faulty logic.
Two things.
Theoretically, you are correct, Merlin, on the POSSIBILITY of getting a perennial Pro Bowler via trade up.
But most ‘experts’ say that there is a drop off after the first 15 or so picks in this draft. So now Snead must pluck his Pro Bowler out of the 2nd tier plateau, which incidentally is projected to extend to pick 50, at least. See the problem for Snead?
I think his biggest challenge will be to find a trade partner for the desired modest trade down, tbh. It will have to be a GM that has fallen in love with a certain player and therefore is willing to give up a late 3rd or early 4th to get him.
And it was a prediction, btw, not a guarantee. Just the way I read the tea leaves this morning.
