Warren Sharp@SharpFootball·
The Bengals run defense allowed the Titans early down runs to produce:
+0.11 EPA/att, 5.7 YPC, 57% success (23 att)
There were some terribly bad & predictable 1st quarter runs that Cincy stopped, but they were quite poor outside the 1st qtr
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Early downs, first 3 quarters, NFL avg:
67% run if QB is under center
66% pass if QB in shotgun
but for Zac Taylor/Joe Burrow:
74% run if under center
78% pass if in shotgun
they're the #5 most run-heavy team if the QB is under center...
#4 most pass-heavy if QB in shotgun
With two weeks to prepare, did the Rams defense uncover the Bengals offensive predictability?
in 3rd & 4th & short, 11 personnel features a 74% pass rate & 12p is 88% run
(for comparison LAR is 57% pass from 11 in this situation)
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I love Joey Covers (20-9-1 ATS in his NFL career)
one day he may be the best QB in the NFL... who knows, one day Cincy could have a dynasty
But why are people talking as if these may be true based on the Super Bowl result?
Joe Burrow's stats this postseason:
-0.04 EPA/dropback
43% success
7.7 YPA
4 TDs in 3 games
6.1 yd aDOT*
*3rd lowest of 14 playoff QBs
Let's pump the brakes & enjoy watching a young QB in his 1st full season play a Super Bowl & try to pull off one more upset for all the chips
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Ja'Marr Chase vs Jalen Ramsey gets the spotlight but Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and the middle of the field (and how the Rams chose to defend it) could be a key to the Super Bowl matchup
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This Super Bowl will be EMPTY
Stafford & Burrow have the two highest rates of dropbacks in empty formations in the NFL this year
But Stafford goes deep (9.6 aDOT, 3 yds higher than Goff) & Burrow goes short (22% of passes go > 10 yds)
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Interesting stats from Colin Cowherd @TheHerd
Teams that allow at least 5 sacks in the #SuperBowl era are 4-15
8 of the last 9 winners have registered more sacks than their opponent
Teams are converting 3rd downs at 18% in the playoffs vs the Rams
Rams have not allowed 61 rush yds or more
