Chasing Calvin: Cooper Kupp now on pace to break single-season receiving record
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theramswire.usatoday.com]
Cameron DaSilva
There may not be a player in the NFL who has enjoyed a bigger breakout season than Cooper Kupp this year. In his first four seasons, he only topped 1,000 yards receiving once and never caught more than 100 passes, though he came close in 2019 and 2020.
But this season, he’s been on an absolute tear and has a great chance to win the receiving triple crown by leading the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Through 14 games, he’s caught 122 passes on 164 targets, gaining 1,625 yards and scoring 14 touchdowns, leading the NFL in all four categories.
That puts him well within reach of Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964 yards, which he set in 2012 with the Lions – and coincidentally with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Kupp needs just 340 more yards in his last three games to break Johnson’s record, which he’s currently on pace to do thanks to his average of 116.1 yards per game.
Here’s an updated look at Kupp’s pursuit of Johnson’s coveted record.
Stats through 14 games
Cooper Kupp: 122 catches, 1,625 yards, 14 TDs
Calvin Johnson: 106 catches, 1,667 yards, 5 TDs
Through 14 games, Kupp actually caught 16 more passes and scored nine more touchdowns than Johnson, but he still has 42 fewer yards than Megatron. Kupp has averaged 13.3 yards per catch, which is still impressive, but Johnson gained 15.7 yards per reception during his record-breaking year, which is why he edges Kupp out in receiving yards despite catching 16 fewer passes.
They had similar numbers in their 14th games, with Johnson catching 10 passes for 121 yards and Kupp hauling in nine catches for 136 yards on Tuesday against the Seahawks.
Johnson's performance in 15th game
Week 16 is when Johnson really erupted. In his 15th game of the 2012 season, he caught 11 passes for 225 yards against the Falcons in the Lions’ 31-18 loss.
He somehow didn’t score a touchdown, but this was his best performance of the season, averaging 14 yards per target and 20 yards per catch.
After averaging 119.1 yards per game through the first 14 games of the year, he increased his average to 126.1 yards per game after this performance. And incredibly, he broke Jerry Rice’s single-season record of 1,848 yards (1995) in only 15 games, racking up 1,892 yards through Week 16.
Kupp's current pace
Kupp has the benefit of playing an extra game after the NFL lengthened the regular season to 17 games this year. That makes it far easier for him to break Johnson’s record, something Julio Jones likely would’ve done in 2015 had he played 17 games.
Kupp is averaging 116.1 yards per game, and if he keeps up that pace for the final three weeks, he will finish with 1,974 yards this season – breaking Johnson’s record by 10 yards.
Kupp needs 339 yards to tie Johnson, which is an average of 113 yards per game in the final three weeks.
If he wants to break the record in only 16 games to avoid fans putting an asterisk next to his name for doing it in 17 games, he will need to average 170 yards in the next two weeks. It’s not impossible, but considering his season-high is 163 yards, it’s unlikely to happen.
Rams' remaining opponents
Week 16: at Vikings
252.1 passing yards allowed per game (29th in NFL)
6.2% pass DVOA (18th in NFL)
Week 17: at Ravens
264.9 passing yards allowed per game (31st in NFL)
20.5% pass DVOA (28th in NFL)
Week 18: vs. 49ers
213.2 passing yards allowed per game (7th in NFL)
6.9% pass DVOA (20th in NFL)
Kupp took advantage of the Seahawks’ struggling defense by gaining 136 yards and scoring two touchdowns on Tuesday night. And fortunately, the road won’t get much tougher in the final three weeks.
The Vikings have been susceptible to the pass, allowing the fourth-most yards per game through the air. The Ravens have been even worse, though they lowered their average despite facing Aaron Rodgers in Week 15.
The 49ers will be the toughest of the three in Week 18, as they allow just 213.2 yards per game. Kupp did beat them for 11 catches and 122 yards back in Week 10, though.
