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RockRam
The Jags wouldn't trade their first straight up for Watson because the possible upside for Lawrence is so high, and the cost of paying Watson versus Lawrence is so lop sided.
And if you are the Texans, do you really want a situation where you get a few mid-round 1st round picks and have no upper level QB any longer?
If I'm Houston, I play this to the wall. Better they anger Watson than their fans by trading him for a bunch of poker chips. And for all the hoopla, Watson is under contract. He either shows up or he doesn't get paid. And that's a LOT of moola to lose to have a hissy fit over.
Ramsey was in a totally different situation as a non-QB.
If you look over recent NFL history, usually the players win these standoffs. How many scenarios can you think of where a star player demands a trade and doesn't eventually end up traded? You've got to get with the times. In the modern sports world, elite players generally have the leverage over the team.
Besides, the Texans will likely end up with an upper level QB and high 1st round picks. The most natural and likely trade partner is Miami. That's also Watson's #1 destination.
It makes too much sense. Miami has picks including the #3 pick this year. They have an upper level QB in Tua.
You point out the Texans leverage of withholding pay. But you didn't acknowledge Watson's leverage. The Texans have been a dysfunctional organization and completely mismanaged. They're trying to correct that reputation. Playing hardball and jerking Watson around goes against that effort. Players and agents are watching how they treat Watson. They already broke their promise to involve him in high level decisions. Playing hardball now will ensure they won't be able to attract any good players to Houston for the foreseeable future.
The smarter path: take Tua, the 2021 #3 pick, some change and run. I've got a $1 that says that's exactly what happens.
