Choosing the Lawrence side of a possible trade over the Watson side is complete insanity. Watson is a proven top-5 QB. His deal is fine. Probably a bargain if you look at the cap hits in 2024 and 2025.
If I'm the Jags--hell yes I am interested in dealing Lawrence for Watson. If I'm the Texans I definitely want more than just the #1 overall. What if the Texans can trade Watson for the #1 overall, a #3, and Josh Allen--if I'm the Texans that's a deal I take but know I'm losing. But I'm not getting a better deal likely.
With Watson you have 4 years of NFL data for scouting. He is elite. There is zero risk. Lawrence is a great prospect but he could easily be the next Goff, Wentz, Mayfield, etc. Elite is rare.
Also, I don't see how you can operate an NFL franchise with an unhappy QB. The QB is way too important for success. Watson is going to get dealt--it is how they avoid the worst case scenario of him holding out. Trade Watson for a youthful project(whether this is Tua, Lawrence, etc) and sign Winston for the now.
A whiners package could be very interesting.
