Week 3 Preview: The Josh Allen Way vs. the Jared Goff Formula

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Week 3 Preview: The Josh Allen Way vs. the Jared Goff Formula, This Time Lamar’s Arm Can Beat K.C.
Also, Brees, Peyton and the farewell season benching; Matt Patricia’s defense finds strange new lows; a get-right opportunity for Wentz; and finding a new approach for the injury-ravaged 49ers defense. Plus, musical guest: The Flaming Lips!
GARY GRAMLING
HOURS AGO
1. For years—three, to be exact—they said not to believe in Josh Allen any more than you believe in sasquatches or leprechauns or clown ponies. But sometimes you just have to have a little faith. Or, in the case of my daughter’s third birthday party, a lot of non-toxic face paint, a farm that plays it fast and loose for the right price and a willingness to absorb a fair amount of ire from the PETA folks.

Two games into 2020, Josh Allen is absolutely torching opposing defenses. There are three reasons behind it:

a) Better downfield receivers: Stefon Diggs, who tracks the ball downfield better than any receiver in the NFL, was supposed to help Allen refine his downfield accuracy, much in the way Cole Beasley’s ability to separate and provide a clear target helped Allen improve his short- and intermediate-level accuracy last season. Allen has targeted Diggs six times beyond 15 yards this season and is 6-for-6 for 153 yards on those throws. He is 12-for-14 for 344 yards 15+ air yard throws to all receivers (with two other inaccurate throws erased by penalties). Over the last two seasons, he completed those throws at a 31.9% clip.

b) Better downfield opportunities: This is more anecdotal, but it seems offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is creating more “downfield” opportunities at the deep-intermediate level rather than over the top of the defense. Allen seems to be throwing more Over routes and deep crossers rather than “drop it in the bucket” throws that have to be placed over a defender and which are difficult for anyone not named Russell W. (In Allen’s case, he seems to have trouble calibrating the moving bodies on those throws and also has a tendency to fire lasers instead of rainbows.) While they haven’t all been beautiful throws, Allen flashes better touch on the crossing concepts—I charted him at 7-for-7 for 156 yards on crossers at 15+ air yards through two games. And part of the reason those opportunities will continue to be there is because safeties have to play with so much depth against Allen, and linebackers are often getting sucked up by play-action (more on that in a second) or devoting a spy because of Allen’s running ability. There are wide-open spaces at the deep-intermediate levels.

c) Aggressive early-down play-calling: Right now, the Bills are the fifth-most pass-heavy offense on first downs—that number normally gets dragged down when you’re often protecting a lead (the rest of the top six in that category are all 0-2 teams). Allen is 8-for-9 for 228 yards throwing downfield on first down, including 6-for-7 for 160 on first-down play-action.

d) Crummy competition: The Jets are bad, specifically at football. The Dolphins are pretty crummy too and lost their top cornerback, Byron Jones, mid-game last week.

NFL Week 3 preview
USA Today Photos (4)

When the Bills host the Rams on Sunday, Allen will be tested by a Brandon Staley defense that uses disguised coverages frequently and effectively, making things obnoxiously blurry for opposing quarterbacks. And even if the Rams’ pass rush is just Aaron Donald and a bunch of warm bodies, Donald alone will provide more heat on Allen than the QB saw over Weeks 1 and 2. Plus, Jalen Ramsey will likely shadowing Allen’s favorite receiver, Diggs.

If Allen crashes back to earth this week, that’s alright. It’s going to happen some week. He’s always going to be a streaky passer. He’s going to overshoot an open receiver once or twice a week—you’ll notice this year, and next year, and every year until the end of time, he’ll never grade well with game-charters. Precision accuracy will never be his thing, and he’ll likely keep losing boneheaded fumbles here and there. That’s the price of doing business with a talent like Allen, as opposed to going with a quarterback who’s going to take care of the ball but frequently pass up open deep-intermediate throws to instead scramble out of bounds for five yards.

Ultimately it’s the possibilities that his skillset presents that will fuel Allen’s success, the fact that defenses have to defend the Bills in a way that creates opportunities—especially, as we’ve seen through two weeks, at the deep-intermediate level—combined with his ability to create out of structure when play designs don’t work. If you’re the Bills, you stay aggressive on early downs and throughout the game, and you hope he goes on his hot streaks at the right time.

1b. Rams-Bills is a fascinating contrast of styles, with both offenses thriving right now. While the Bills are doing it with the big play, for the Rams it’s all about sustained offense and what they do on football’s most important down: first down.

In part because they have trailed for only a little less than 10 minutes on the season so far, the Rams have the most run-heavy offense in the NFL through two games (56.8% run percentage). Their 2020 offense has been defined by that run game and a passing game heavy on play-action and misdirection, with an emphasis on attacking horizontally and getting yards after the catch (they also lead the NFL with a 7.9 YAC average).

It all works because they’ve been successful on first downs. The Rams have been sustaining long drives because they’ve faced the most palatable second downs in football so far—6.29 yards is their average second-down distance (no team has been sub-7 in that stat over a full season since the 2005 Colts). When you’re staying ahead of the sticks, every offensive option stays on the table. That means the defense needs to respect the run threat on play-action (while “establishing the run” doesn’t factor into play-action effectiveness, down-and-distance does since no one’s getting sucked up on third-and-8 … except for maybe the Jets) and jet motion (Rams receivers had six rushing attempts in Philly last week). And Sean McVay’s offense is as good as any in football when it comes to making all their plays look the same. That’s how a team that doesn’t stretch the field vertically puts constant stress on a defense.

If that first-down success continues, the Rams will be in business. If it doesn’t, they’ll be in trouble. L.A. has converted third-and-6-or-less at a 77.3% rate through two games, third-best in the NFL. They’re 1-for-13 (7.7%) on third-and-7+, second-worst in the NFL. Those third-and-long struggles will be exacerbated against the Bills: Goff has always had issues against Cover-4 looks, and no one plays quarters coverage better than Sean McDermott’s group.

1c. If you were wondering, the Bucs are 0-for-18 on third-and-7+ this year. I think we can all agree that fact should be at the forefront of any discussion regarding Tom Brady’s legacy. What a loser.

1d. By the way, the Bills actually lead the league in yards per play on first down (7.53) because so many of their big plays have come on first down, but they’re facing an average of 8.06 yards per second down—23rd best in the NFL—because their offense has been so all-or-nothing. But Buffalo is also leading the league on third-and-long conversions, going 8-for-13 (61.5%) on third-and-7+. They’re like the bizarro Rams. Neat, right? RIGHT?! Well, I thought it was.

1e. Occasionally, this column includes anecdotes about my personal life that are a mixture of things that actually happened, things that are loosely based on something that actually happened, or full-on fabrications—not unlike my LinkedIn page. But to be clear, regarding this week’s opening paragraph: I have not, in actuality, ever face-painted a baby horse or baby horses. It’s a bad idea for a number of reasons and neither you nor I should ever do so, even at the request of an adorable loved one.