Here is what I found the best part (bold tells who Allen really is now):
For quarterbacks, the stats that tend to be stable over time include passing efficiency from a clean pocket, passing efficiency with no play-action, completion percentage over expected and the share of throws that are off target or negatively graded. Each of these aspects of a QB’s performance is indicative of their true skill and is less affected by circumstances and luck. Stats that aren’t predictive of future performance — and that tend to be highly affected by circumstances and luck — include passing under pressure, passing outside the pocket and passing efficiency with play-action.
Allen’s numbers are great in the unstable, less predictive metrics and middle of the road in their stable, more predictive counterparts. Allen’s QBR when not under pressure (79) is good for just 19th in the league. His off-target throw percentage (16.3) has improved from previous years3 but is still good for just 16th in the NFL. And his completion percentage over expected, an NFL Next Gen Stats metric that compares the difficulty of each pass to that of a league-average quarterback in a similar situation, is just 2.1, 16th in the league.
