Quote
dzrams
From what I've seen in reviewing past contracts, pedigree doesn't matter much at all and neither does how long a player has been a starter when he's been productive over multiple years. I believe age does matter some but not when there is only a year or so difference.
What does matter is production with recent production being paramount. Littleton has been very productive the last two seasons. He has an established rep now as being one of the best overall ILBs in the league and possibly the best in coverage. Look at passes defended, INTs, TDs scored, Forced Fumbles, and sacks for LBs. Littleton is in the top 5 for all of them.
Based on production I think he can easily make a case as being a top 5 ILB up there with Wagoner, Mosley, Jack, Jones, and Smith. If I'm his agent, I'm asking for Wagoner money. He's not going to get it but that's the anchor point for the negotiations.
Most of the LBs you mentioned are considered a tier below the comps used in the article. Hicks is a couple of tiers below. I don't think he's a good comp at all.
I agree wholeheartedly with the bolded bit. 2nd contracts especially aren't "ranked"--if you are considered starting caliber, the players at a certain position who are up in a given year get more or less around the same amount.
And you're right, depending on the position there can be a 2nd tier. IMO that;s when there's doubts about someone's capacity to be a full-fledged, unquestioned starter. I think that's what happened to Woods.
Wagoner money right now though is a third contract, and 2nd contracts tend to be their own market. Wagoner's 2nd contract was an extension in 2015.
