Rich Hammond: The myths and realities of Jared Goff’s 1st 3 games

[theathletic.com]

Breaking down the myths and realities of Jared Goff’s first three games



By Rich Hammond

What’s wrong with Jared Goff?

The most scrutinized 3-0 quarterback in the NFL, Goff is the subject of much angst because, while the Rams take an undefeated record into Sunday’s home game against Tampa Bay, he hasn’t performed up to the lofty outside expectations set for him.

For some critics, the pungent waft of Super Bowl disappointment still lingers. For others, it’s a question of whether a 24-year-old quarterback deserved a contract extension that included $110 million in guaranteed money. And while they won’t admit it, a small percentage of Goff’s critics seemingly made up their minds during his dreadful 2016 rookie season and continue to pounce on every told-you-so moment.

There’s zero panic at Rams headquarters.

“He’s had some really good moments,” coach Sean McVay said of Goff, “and I think there’s some situations that really, a lot of it starts with some of the selections and some of the spots that I put him in (as a play-caller). Ultimately, the goal is to win games and for us to be 3-0.

“I think he’s shown why he’s a special player and I think like anything else, there’s always going to be some things that we look at that we can improve. I’m excited to do that with him.”

This is life for Goff and the Rams, and everyone understands it. The Rams are Super Bowl contenders with extraordinary talent at running back and receiver, and the quarterback must play at a high level. Occasional mistakes are understandable, but a prolonged dip in production will raise questions.

What is fair? What is reality and what is myth when it comes to Goff’s first three games? Let’s dissect some of the things being said about his performance this month.

Goff is struggling
Yes, this is objectively true, with a couple caveats. The sample size (three games) remains small and the Rams’ schedule hasn’t been easy, with a sweltering game at Carolina, a loud Sunday night affair in Cleveland and a rematch of last season’s NFC title game against the motivated New Orleans Saints.

Let’s check the consensus this Sunday night after Goff faces a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 300-plus passing yards to the Panthers and Giants in the past two weeks and didn’t record an interception in either game. This certainly has the feel of a “correction” game in terms of Goff’s stats.

Still, by every statistical measure — other than, you know, wins — Goff is down this season. His passer rating of 84.5 ranks 21st among the 27 NFL quarterbacks who have attempted at least 80 passes, and his completion percentage (62.9) ranks 17th. Goff has yet to throw for 300 yards, which he did in eight of 16 games last season, and he has totaled four touchdowns and three interceptions.

The last part is the most troubling. Goff’s arm strength is fine — remember the old “small hands” issue? — and his footwork has improved, but he can’t make this many mistakes. Against the Browns last Sunday, Goff threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.

These haven’t really been eye-popping plays by defenders. Goff either has been making bad decisions with the ball or holding onto it too long in the pocket. A coach always wants his quarterback to make big plays, yes, but think of a QB as being a doctor. The first rule is “Do no harm,” and Goff must reduce his turnovers.

Here are Goff’s two interceptions from the Cleveland game.

[cdn.theathletic.com]

[cdn.theathletic.com]

Goff is not elite
This is not objectively answerable. The word “elite” gets tossed around with no definition. In terms of skill and production, is Goff a top-five NFL quarterback? Probably not. Top 10? Maybe, maybe not, but he also has a conference title, two Pro Bowl selections and more than 10,000 yards on his resume before his 25th birthday. No other active quarterback can say that. Isn’t that worth something?

Again, sample size is important here. In 2018, Goff finished fourth among all quarterbacks in yards (4,688), tied for sixth in touchdowns (32) and eighth in quarterback rating (101.1). That doesn’t include the NFC Championship Game, in which Goff took the field with a hobbled Todd Gurley and an off-his-couch C.J. Anderson and rallied the Rams to victory after a 13-point first-quarter deficit.

Yes, the stakes get raised when a quarterback signs a second contract. It’s now fair to measure Goff against the best because that is how he is getting paid. Is Goff “elite” this season? No, absolutely not by any measure. Where does he rank when his excellent 2017 and 2018 seasons are factored in?

Let’s top the list with (in alphabetical order) Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Round out the top five with Matt Ryan. Is Goff in that class? No, not yet. How about Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger? Those are two accomplished veterans who get the nod over Goff. But who else? Does Goff really belong behind Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz or Russell Wilson, when factoring in a combination of talent and accomplishments? The vote here is no.

Then there’s the silliness about Goff being a system quarterback. Goff played in a version of the “air raid” system at Cal, and critics said those skills wouldn’t translate to the NFL. But then he thrived under McVay with some of the same critics scoffing that Goff simply benefitted from McVay’s great scheming and play-calling. It’s a little comical. Yes, McVay is smart, but does anyone really believe that if backup Blake Bortles — who once reached the AFC Championship Game but never came close to meeting expectations in Jacksonville — took over for Goff that the Rams would equally thrive?

Goff is holding back the Rams
This is mostly false. Goff might not be helping the Rams’ offense as much as usual, but he’s not alone.

The offensive line, at the moment, has three new members with a combined total of 10 NFL starts. Todd Gurley is, at best, on some type of limited-usage plan and, at worst, isn’t capable of the same dynamism he displayed in 2017 and 2018. In general, McVay, the Rams’ coach/play-caller, still seems to be trying to figure out the defensive looks that teams have been trying against the Rams.

Goff hasn’t helped, but as my colleague Vinny Bonsignore wrote this week, the blame should be shared, not shouldered.

The line shouldn’t get all the blame, either. Brian Allen arguably has been an upgrade at center over John Sullivan, and Joe Noteboom has been fine at left guard. But these are young guys and it’s not always going to be perfect. When Goff doesn’t look totally comfortable in the pocket and doesn’t seem to be keeping his eyes downfield at all times, that can (and perhaps should) be a sign that he has the offensive-line’s play in the back of his head. There’s been some evidence of that.

And while the play of the line can be debated — Pro Football Focus grades the Rams’ line as the 10th-best in the NFL this season, but Jamil Demby had a rough debut game against the Browns — the loss of veterans Sullivan and Rodger Saffold shouldn’t be overlooked. At center, for instance, Sullivan’s effectiveness had started to wane, but he remained valuable because of his intelligence and ability to point out things at the line of scrimmage. Is Allen able to provide the same input to Goff?

Beyond that, McVay has acknowledged that his play-calling needs improvement, and the Rams really need to figure out what’s going on with Gurley, who has totaled 44 carries in three games. Even if the Rams are (smartly) managing his workload, something doesn’t look quite right, and Gurley’s lack of impact trickles down to the pass game and to Goff.



Goff is awful on the road
This is where things get complicated. There’s a loud narrative that Goff is much worse on the road than at home, and NBC pushed it last Sunday with a graphic that showed the disparity in his statistical split.

Context is important and will be provided, but first here’s a look at the raw numbers.

Goff at home
(21 career games) 63.6%, 8.05ypa, TD/Int ratio 2.83, QB Rating 97.8

Goff on the road
(21 career games) 60.6%, 7.24ypa, TD/Int 2.06, QB Rating 89.7

So yes, there’s evidence Goff is better at home, somewhat substantially, and there’s even more analysis to be done about his performances in warm, dry weather compared to less-ideal conditions. But here’s the thing: Almost every quarterback is worse on the road, and Goff shouldn’t even be drawing the most attention.

Passer rating is a stat with inherent flaws, but it remains a fair overall measure. Goff’s career rating is 8.1 points better at home than on the road. What does that mean? For context, let’s measure Goff against a group of 10 other quarterbacks who could be considered the best in the NFL right now.

Wentz’s career passer rating at home is 16.5 points higher than on the road. Three other top quarterbacks have a wider home/road split than Goff — Brees (10.9), Roethlisberger (9.6) and Rodgers (9.1) — while Ryan is tied with Goff at 8.1.

The only top quarterbacks with a smaller home/road rating disparity are Brady (2.4), Rivers (3.0), Wilson (4.4) and Prescott (5.3). Mahomes is substantially better on the road (11.1) but with a relatively small sample size (11 games).

How about other stats? Goff’s TD-to-interception ratio is 0.77 percent better at home. That’s a very modest difference, and only four of those top-10 quarterbacks have a narrower difference. Goff suffers a bit more in stats such as completion percentage (he’s 3.0 percent better at home) and yards per attempt (0.81 more at home). In those categories, Goff is worse on the road than his peers, sometimes substantially.

Goff isn’t in peak form. There’s no cause for panic. Both of these things can be true at the same time. Criticism is understandable but seems inflated because of the way the Rams struggled in the Super Bowl and because the Rams have played two road games while trying to navigate life with new linemen and an odd run game.

Check back in mid-October. If Goff’s numbers haven’t rebounded and if the Rams still don’t look like themselves on offense, further analysis will be warranted. For now, there’s a lot of concern about the quarterback of an undefeated team.