The Run Game

Schottenheimer, the Seahawks and past Rams Offensive Coordinator, was quoted giving a common line about how to best win a game in the NFL. The line is our goal is 53 combined rushing ATTEMPTS and COMPLETED passes. The interpretation of this magical 53 number is important and divisive.

Schottenheimer, or anyone quoting that number as a goal to reach, must think that achieving 53 combined rushing attempts and completed passes nearly ensures a victory. Another way to look at that number is that 53 combined is a result of the behaviors that actually are important to winning the game. Let's consider the Seahawks Cowboys game as an example.

Seahawks Offense in the first half. Stats from [www.nflgsis.com]

Seattle 10 rushes for 22 yards. 11 Passing attempts for 97 yards on 7 completions.

They have 10 rushing attempts and 7 completed passes = 17; 53 (game goal) - 17 (first half result) = 36 Needed rushing attempts+completions in the 2nd half.

I won't even get into the yards per attempt comparison. Let's focus on number of plays. The Seahawks had 21 plays. 21. For any chance to hit 53 combined they need to have alot more offensive plays. How does a team get more plays--more first downs and more drives.

The key is first downs. Not 53 combined whatever. 53 combined whatevers is a result of a team converting alot of first downs. Converting first downs creates more plays, more plays equal more completions/attempts, more completions/attempts result in more yards, etc.

If the key, which I believe it is, is maximizing your chance of converting first downs how do you do that? Anyway you can. Path of least resistance. But I will say that the primary driver of converting first downs is to never see a 3rd down. If you convert first downs on first or second down you are golden. 3rd down conversion efficiency is a meaningless stat if the attempts are zero. Thus, gaining 5+ yards on first and second down seems to be a better goal/indicator of winning a game.

The Rams should do whatever maximizes their ability to gain 5+ yards on first down. And versus the Cowboys I don't think that is running. Playaction on first down all day is what I think the Rams should call. The Cowboys Lbs sell out to stop the run--watch the Seahawks game and key in on Jaylon Smith on the playaction plays. He is nearly at the line of scrimmage before he reacts to the fake.

If we can run for 5+ yards on first and second down then I am all for running every play. However, in my opinion play action gives us a better chance of gaining 5+ yards,on average.