Re: It doesn't matter if it's 20-25 yard line...

Quote
SUretHing
Your assumption is no way safe. The simple fact that teams have a huge disparity in red zone trips lends itself that teams can have a very varied distribution. In fact I find it high;y unlikely after 10 games there are not wide divergencies.

Oh and far as completion pct length of throw is usually also taken into account. And not all QBS throw the same number of 20+
throws. There are plenty of sources that back that up.

And your assumption has to be proven. I am at least running with the odds. With hundreds of plays in the redzone per season, there is no way any particular team ends up in a high percentage of unique situations. That's just the odds...it's not an asserted "assumption." The odds say that in hundreds of cases no team is going to end up being uniquely different. To disprove that you would have to show me that some teams have completely unique situations, for example that they always start at the 5 yard line or something. You can doubt personally all you want but the odds are against you. You would actually have to have evidence to assert the contrary. So all I take from your response is that you want to doubt the odds but without actually basing it on anything---ie. without basing it on anything demonstrating the odds are not working out the way they normally should.

This is why coaches and execs and professional sports analysts all use RZ stats without any hesitation. Including McVay.

So I take it we have an impasse. You don't like RZ stats, and that's what I take from it. I don't take it as a compelling argument.

No completion percentage does not account for length of throw, that's YPA. Completion percentage is simply the percentage of attempts that are completed. As a stat it has all the flaws you believe go to RZ percentage. The entire point of completion percentage comparisons and rankings is that you don't have to account for every ball thrown away or dropped pass because in the aggregate those all just even out. So it is all roughly the same parameters. But again---no one goes around saying completion percentage isn't real. They don't say it about RZ percentage until it turns out their team is not as good at it as they should be. Then, it's the stat that's wrong. Logical consistency would dictate that if that argument were really real it would apply to completion percentage too, except no one ever does say that.

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Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 11/15/2018 04:01PM by zn.