Now, I don't have a feel for NO. How good are they, really? It's possible that we could expose them some.

However, I think we lose this one. First, their offense is a nightmare for us: a scary running game and a brilliant passing attack. I'll put it simply: I don't trust our defense.

Second, there's the whole matter a hot streak coming to an end. They always do, and I don't think we can count on any more games to break perfectly for us down the stretch.

Now, relax. I am not questioning our quality or saying we've just been lucky. We are very good, and excellent competitors. But I haven't seen us establish the sort of edge that can prevail over and over again without playing our A game. And we have not been doing that. Our offense has sputtered and our defense has been downright spotty. This week, that won't be enough.

But you know, that could be OK. Sometimes, there is value in a loss. Break the streak and people can stop worrying about it. Coaches know that players listen after a loss differently than after a sloppy win. A loss could be good for us.

Of course, a loss hurts in the race for HFA. And I'd hate to go back to NO in a title game.

Well, what do I know? Not a damn thing. Hope I'm wrong.