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dzrams
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ferragamo79
AD was a home run for sure, but he was a surprise, Im not sure anybody thought he would be such a beast as he would have gone top 3.
but that said, they had 4 of the top 75 picks.
I love Joyner, but Mo Alexander is on his 3rd team...we will see....just ok in my book. And while Gaines has been a starter, he is very fragile and missed 28 starts in four years, again on his 3rd team. Want to see scary: look at 2006 through 2011 drafts.........
My point:
1. Don't judge a draft until 3 years have passed.
2. Rams have blown a lot of picks...especially during Fisher era with all those top picks.
3. Rams have not hit on 40% of their picks during that time. Definitely way less than 40 percent before that: see 2006-2011.
4. Draft is way over rated. People get so excited with picks but most dont make the team or flame out very soon there after.
5. Key is drafting well with adding trades and quality free agents. IMHO.
I agree with a lot of this. Points 1, 4, and 5 I have no problems with.
On point 3, before I accept them hitting on less than 40% overall as some type of indictment, I need to know where that number came from and what facts back it up.
I'm doing some quick mental math and seems to me that 40% as the expectation is way high. It should be closer to 29% when calculating all of the hit rates published in various studies for each respective round.
From what I've seen, the hit rate on the 1st round at its highest is 75% and it goes down to about 7% for the 7th round. The 2nd round is at 50%; the 2nd and the 1st round are the only ones with a hit rate above 40 so I'm not seeing how you're gonna get to 40% when you're factoring in all rounds.
Please explain if you know how that originated.
I actually looked at several years of good drafting teams.
They tend to hit around 40% up to the mid 40s.
Anything 50% or above is rare and superlative.
30% is average. High 30s is average-to-good.
Below 30% goes from below average to poor.
You can't derive this from hit rates round for round for the entire league. Then the averages get skewed by mixing good, bad, and average teams.
Pick 3-4 good drafting teams. Go back a few years so you can be sure of the results. Do consecutive years, like 5-6.
That's what I did that and it's my standard.
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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/03/2018 11:58AM by zn.
