That 50/50 chance on a typical #23 pick only says that the player will be a "starter."
It doesn't mean that he will be an impact starter, a very productive starter, an above average/elite starter.
One study showed that there's a 50/50 chance that your "starter" will be an impact starter. So basically, there is only a 25-30% chance that the pick at #23 turns out great.
It gets worse!
For WRs drafted in the 1st round over the past three years, only 1 in 13 has had significant production. His name is Amari Cooper. The rest are either underwhelming or outright busts. This explains the skyrocketng costs for productive WRs.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/04/2018 08:35AM by dzrams.