Re: Do you remember Antonio Brown's rookie year?

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Rampage2K-

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zn

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Rampage2K-

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zn

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Rampage2K-
Probably not.

Had similar numbers to Reynolds. l.

Over the years, so did hundreds of other receivers.

Only a handful of which eventually made it in the NFL as first-rate starters.

So then the question becomes, are there reasons to assume that Reynolds is one of the ones that will make it?

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Odds are against him, I think 4th rounders have about a 20% chance of sticking around for more then 3 years let alone becoming stars.


But, he is definitely in the right place to be coached up by one of the best in the league in running a successful offense.

Okay. That's the optimistic take.

But there have been great offensive coaching staffs in the past that could not make anything out of a 4th round receiver, even promising ones.

For example, looking at the decade from 2004 to 2013 (far enough back so we can be sure), here are the WRs the Steelers have taken in round 4 or lower:

year round pick player
2005 4 131 Fred Gibson
2007 7 227 Dallas Baker
2010 6 195 Antonio Brown
2007 7 227 Dallas Baker
2013 6 186 Justin Brown

One of 5 so yeah 20%.

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Hard not to be optimistic about this offense after seeing it go from utterly nonexistent to highest scoring team in the NFL in first season under McVay.


Sorry if I'm feeling optimistic around here


Someone has to do it

Yes but they did it on the basis of Gurley, a stable OL, and acquiring guys like Woods.

That does not in itself mean that they suddenly alter the odds on 4th round receivers.

Heck with BR and a tough team and good drafting, the team that found Antonio Brown whiffed on the other lower-round receivers they took.

Honestly, good coaches need good players, and they themselves don't automatically convert lower round longshots into players. Great coaches with great schemes whiff on lower round WRs too.

Here are all the receivers Bill Walsh took round 4 and after with the 9ers from 79 to 88:

year round pick player
1979 10 249 Dwight Clark
1984 11 307 Kirk Pendleton
1984 10 275 Dave Moritz
1986 10 267 Elliston Stinson
1987 11 301 Calvin Nicholas
1987 5 134 Paul Jokisch

So...1 of 6. And that's the great Bill Walsh.

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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/03/2018 12:18PM by zn.