Quote
max
In other words I'd take the CB if the OT has any red flags
Well, our personal Rams fans traumas with OT picks aside, you don't take
any player in round 1 who has red flags.
In the decade I looked at, 1st round picks who made it at LOT come out to 50%.
Round 3 and after it's under 5%.
That says if you want a left OT, and one is there (without red flags) at 23, you take him, because after rounds 1 and 2 your odds go WAY down.
Look at the Rams. Since 1975 their hit rate on LOTs drafted in rounds 1 and 2 is 50%. (I count Barron as not being a hit. I count Saffold as a guard). [
www.pro-football-reference.com]
50%? That's actually pretty much the norm these days. (BTW from 1975-2015 their hit rate on
left OTs taken after round 2 is 0%. They got right OTs and guards out of that but not left OTs: [
www.pro-football-reference.com] ).
The issue recently has been that it is harder to assess LOTs who played in a college spread. That is, Smith and Robinson were not special cases with ignored red flags. Not at all. They were actually just a statistical effect of trying to judge LOTs who played in the spread. You look around the league and it used to be that taking a lineman in round one was a very safe pick. That's not true anymore, and the spread is the reason for that.
....
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/24/2018 05:40AM by zn.
