EDIT: Original version of this post had an error in that I flipped who had playoff experience and who didn't in one particular game (Bengals at Texans in 2011). That is now fixed, as is the analysis at the top of the post.
OK, below is every game involving a "zero-experience" team. I think I miscounted at ten earlier, because it's 11 total.
Away team won 3 times.
Home team won 8 times.
No surprises there.
The "zero-experience" team was the HOME team seven out of the eleven games. Pretty impressive.
The total record for "zero-experience" HOME teams is 4-3.
So, all four "zero-experience" teams that won in the last ten years were also the home team. Obviously that helped. On the other hand, being at home gave only the slightest edge to "zero-experience." I don't know the math to tell you if it's statistically significant or not..
The "zero-experience" team always lost when they were the road team. By contrast, the team with playoff experience won on the road three times, which also accounts for every Away team win when a "zero-experience" team is involved in the wildcard round.
So, just to be clear, I'm not prognosticating. I'm just saying, there's something here. And believe me,
that bugs me. I started this off trying to disprove the pundits, assuming that "playoff experience" was just a lazy way to pick a favorite. Not so much.
OK, here's the data...
First, the format
Year
Away Team (Seed.YearsExp) at Home Team (Seed.YearsExp)
Losing Team Score - WINNING TEAM SCORE
2008
Ravens (6.1) at Dolphins (3.0)
RAVENS 27 - Dolphins 9
Falcons (5.1) at Cardinals (4.0)
Falcons 24 - CARDINALS 30
2011
Steelers (5.3) at Broncos (4.0)
Steelers 23 - BRONCOS 29 (OT)
Bengals (6.1) at Texans (3.0)
Bengals 10 - TEXANS 31
Lions (6.0) at Saints (3.2)
Lions 28 - SAINTS 45
2012
Seahawks (5.1) at Redskins (4.0)
SEAHAWKS 24 - Redskins 14
2014
Cardinals (5.0) at Panthers (4.1)
Cardinals 16 - PANTHERS 27
Lions (6.1) at Cowboys (3.0)
Lions 20 - COWBOYS 24
2016
Texans (5.2) at Raiders (4.0)
TEXANS 27 - Raiders 14
Dolphins (6.0) at Steelers (3.2)
Dolphins 12 - STEELERS 30
Giants (5.0) at Packers (4.4)
Giants 13 - PACKERS 38
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/04/2018 09:50AM by EternalHorns.
