I don't know statistically what the failure rate of a promoting a OC/DC to HC is; but it is substantial.
So the thing is, I don't think any of us have any insight whatsoever into the leadership skills, the people skills, the management skills, communication skills, etc., that a "hot" DC or OC possesses. All we see is the result of that DC or OC's unit on the field, but it is still under the management of an HC.
Will McDaniels be successful apart from Bellicheck? He wasn't at Denver or St. Louis.
Will Shanahan be successful running an entire team, choosing personnel, etc., as he is at running only an offense?
These are different jobs with different skill sets. I'm not even sure if a how good of a position coach or DC or OC is a measure of how good of an HC a candidate might be.
Does age matter? Yes, I think it does to a point. There is simply no substitute for the lessons of life and maturity. But, there are always exceptions to the rule.
It's a crap shoot boys and girls. Every bit as much as drafting a QB.
Let's hope the Rams catch the brass ring this time around. I'm sure it won't be for the lack of trying. But in the end it is NOT going to be something that can be measured and tested; it will be intuition and instinct that makes the selection.
