I've worked quite a bit with statistics. If anyone who reported to me were to say, "I have a sample size of five but I'm discounting one because I feel it is an outlier," I would tell him he doesn't know what he's doing. And I would protect him from ridicule by not letting him exposing his process to anyone else in the company.
I understand the value of only looking at the past three games, i.e. to identify a trend. But a sample size of five is too small to start calling unfavorable data outliers.
We need to play more games and collect more data to be able to characterize this team with a little confidence.
I'm hopeful like you, but the data for Fisher's performance says he's a, what, slightly below average coach in terms of W-L since he's been with the Rams? (Sorry, I don't know the exact W/L record, but I know it isn't stellar). So, I am sad to say, I expect more of the same from him. My hopes, and confidence were quite high before the 49ers game. Now, I"m hoping for a 500 season and I'm doubtful of that.
Then again, I always, always, tend to be more pessimistic and conservative. For a week or two I was walking around the office saying, "how about them Rams!" Now, I'm quiet. My only solace is that I'm surrounded by Lion's fans, and I still get to tell Lions jokes. "What do you call a Detroit Lion with a super bowl ring? A thief!"
