Here’s Blue Boy...
The 2020 Los Angeles Rams: Playing in a Phone Booth…
Okay… I’ve been sitting here on the sidelines for a while, just watching… Reading many of the insightful comments you guys here post… A lot of good insight… And of course, there is always some stuff I agree with and some that I don’t… And when that happens, I test those opinions for myself and judge accordingly…
I decided to poke around at some numbers - and taking into account my own personal observations - and came up with my own thoughts and opinions…
And of course these are all just my own personal opinions…
First, I believe that the Rams this year actually performed much better than most people expected… Mostly to do with the fact that 99-Donald is 'otherworldly,' Staley proved himself a genius and 20-Ramsey played up to the hype / expectations…
In that regard, I am not as disappointed as I might normally have been in previous years give the journey's abrupt end after the 2nd round…
Of course with any disappoint, we as humans inevitably try to determine what happens and who is at fault for us not winning the Super Bowl this year…
That being the case - in my opinion then - I have tried to asses who is to blame…
I would therefore assess blame in the following order:
#1 Offensive Line…
They say "It starts up front…" And regarding this particular team, nothing could be truer… I read the PFF article on the 'best o-lines' and did a spit-take when I saw that the Rams were rated #2… Yes, in my opinion they are indeed a 'Big #2'… A '#2' that circles the bowl almost every time we play a team with a stout middle of the defensive line… One that is able to get a lot of push and collapse the pocket (i.e Miami, SF - twice, TB, NY Giants - and even the lowly NY Jets…)
This past season Coach MacVay chose to transform our attack into a 'Phone Booth' offense… One featuring attacking the edges in the running game… and short passes (slants and quick outs), heavy on play-action and rollouts…
The team ended up being pretty efficient and because it relied on quick / mostly single reads, as a unit we gave up a relatively low number of sacks… BUT comparatively speaking (when looking at the 14 playoff teams) we were among the leaders in pressures allowed…
We were pressured about 20% of the time - which looks to be great if you have a running / mobile QB (KC, Seattle, Buffalo, Cleveland, Baltimore, Bears, Packers…) Most of these teams pressure numbers are in the mid 20%’s… (And - amazingly - Rogers is at 14%…!!!)
But not… If your QB is a fixed / pocket passer… Those teams pressure numbers are mostly in the 'mid-teens' (Colts, Saints, Bucs, Steelers…)
And there is nothing that affects a QB’s passer rating more than a pressure… The QB rating goes down by about 40% per pass… Lower completion%… Lower YPA… Lower TD%… Higher Int%…
This 'phone booth' offense did not require our o-linemen to have hold their blocks for a long time… (especially when they were going up-tempo…)
As we saw, both 77-Whitworth and 79-Havenstein looked like JAG’s against the Packers… 63-Corbett, as well… 71-Evans was a mere fill-in… And 66-Blythe - as usual - was physically overmatched… Yes, he is able to make the line calls - better apparently than anyone else we have on the team… But he does not have the physical capability to hold up under pressure…
This line - in effect - functioned largely on the basis of smoke and mirrors…
Remember when 66-Blythe failed as a guard…? This is the same guy at center that he was there… No better a blocker at center than as a guard… At center, he simply does not have a d-lineman positioned over the top of him as often as he had at guard…
These guys (between the guards) simply cannot win / control the interior of the line of scrimmage on a regular basis… That being the case… Kromer is probably worth every penny given what he was able to get out of these guys this year… (Imagine what he could do with real physical talent…!)
#2 Sean McVay…
Which moves us to the next topic - the coach… (I love the fact that he is our coach…!) And I truly believe that he knows that the weakest link on offense IS the O-line… Therefore he re-designed his offense to do what they can do best… Attack the edges in the running game… Use play-action to cover up the fact that the o-line cannot cannot sustain pass blocking to be able to do 7-set drops with an immobile QB… (which they did successfully early and often in 2017 and 2018…)
Not to mention he is also fully aware of the fact that they have no deep threat to stretch the field in order to create the mid-level and down field passes we used to see in 2017 and 2018 - and even in 2019… (No Cooks… No Watkins…)
He changed the offense to rely primarily on more short passes to the WR’s… This shows up in the Intended Air Yards… 2018: IAY 8.7 / 2019: 7.7 / 2020: 6.6
Note, too: The number of throws to RB's (normally close to or behind the LOS) was going down during that period…
The routes have gotten shorter and shorter over time…
Over that same period: 17-Woods and 10-Kupp YBC (Yards Traveled in Air per catch) dropped from a high of 9.9 (17-Woods) to about 5.0 yards for both 17-Woods and 10-Kupp (2020)…
By comparison, for Cooks it was on average 10 yards of YBC…
So then, we have rarely been throwing long… The defenses know this - it’s in the numbers… And so we are forced to play against defenses packed in close to the LOS… Runs and short passes… Slants and screens… With the occasional play-action up the seam… With few - if any - designed pass plays at various distance levels…
Another way he is protecting the O-line is by calling more play-action passes and rollouts… But again, nothing particularly long… And certainly very little in the way of medium length routes…
Pretty easy to defend when you are playing in a 'phone booth'…
And lack of a quick strike weapon or the ability to throw long downfield means that EVERY SINGLE TIME you get the ball you are forced to be practically perfect on every down and finish long drives of 60 to 80 yards to score… (and usually resulting in a FG…!)
And it is reflected in the numbers:
3rd Down conversion efficiency: 2018: 45.0% / 2019: 39.9% / 2020: 43.4%
Sure, they improved the 3rd down conversion efficiency - a little bit - this year, but to what effect…? It only takes one failed 3rd down to stall a drive…
And the Red Zone continues to be a major issue for the Rams…
Red Zone Efficiency: 2018: 57.5% / 2019: 64.4% / 2020: 57.9%
Look at that figure (57.9%)… Is that good or bad…? Well, look at the comparative Red Zone results of our playoff peers… Packers: 80.0% / Bucs: 68.9% / KC: 61.0 / NO : 72.1% / Bills: 61.8% / Titans: 75.0% / Browns: 73.6% / Steelers: 63.5% / Seahawks: 73.2%
Even more telling are the following stats…
**** Rz Att. / Rz TDs. / Total TDs. / Long TDs. (scored OUTSIDE the Red Zone)
LAR. | 57. / *** 33. / *** 39. / *** 6
KC. | 59. / *** 36. / *** 53. / *** 17
GB. | 60. / *** 48. / *** 64. / *** 16
TB. | 61. / *** 42. / *** 58. / *** 16
Note: TD figures do not include Defensive TDs…
Compared these figure, the LA Rams are not only less effective in the Red Zone than these other playoff teams… BUT - AND THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT - we are also NOT generating any big chunk TD plays - either because of the offensive scheme or the lack of a WR capable of stretching the Defense… And this true going back all the way to 2017 (7)… 2018 (9)… 2019 (4)…
KC / GB / TB all average at least 1 long (> 20+ yards) TD per game…!!!
#3 Les Snead…
Some of this blame has to go on the GM as well… In some respects, in trading away 1st rounders and relying on later round draft picks, he has kicked the can down the road… Thereby mortgaging the team’s future…
Putting us in a position of having lesser (later round) talent out of sink with players currently in their prime…
Yes, there were mistakes in paying some off those guys (Gurley and Cooks)… Thereby affecting our options in free agency… Especially when trading high draft picks for 'last contract year wonders' (Cooks and Watkins)…
As a result we have largely failed to fill the gaps in the o-line as well as, replace / acquire a reliable, speedy downfield WR…
I don’t consider the 16-Goff contract a bad one (yet)… Without Covid and the effect it will have on the future salary cap, he would otherwise be earning what would be considered a good - NOT GREAT - contract… Deserving of a QB… Especially for the most important position on the team… One who has gotten the Super Bowl and has helped the team get to the playoffs 3 out of 5 years…
(One might also consider it something of a 'faux-pas' by not anticipating the future importance and transition to a more mobile QB driven league… But that is hindsight…)
Regarding the impact of trading away future 1st round picks… And hoping to make up the difference with added 3rd rounders… One has to take into account that the maximum signing term for a non-1st round pick is 4 years (Max 1st rounder: a 5 year contract)… Thereby putting the team in a position of not being able to be patient in his development… (See 70-Noteboom… A guy who after 3 years is still an unknown quantity and unlikely to be extended - especially if 77-Whitworth comes back for another season… He has proved little… Poor run blocker, adequate pass blocker…)
These later draft picks must therefore come in and produce almost immediately… If they fail, that’s bad and a waste… And if they succeed, you pay up that much sooner to keep them or risk losing them entirely…
#4 Jared Goff…
First, let me begin by saying this: That if this were the 80’s or 90’s or even the early 2000’s… We might consider 16-Goff an upper tier QB… But this is the 1st quarter of the 21st century and if we had a mobile QB a la Watson or Mahomes or Allen, I believe we would all agree that would be our preference…
That being the case - with the talent that surrounds him, 16-Goff is at best a good QB… Capable - as he has proved - of leading a winning team…
How bad then was 16-Goff in 2020…? Is he turnover prone…?
What about the Fumbles…?
16-Goff: 2020: 10 / 2019: 4 / 2018: 9
No wait… Those aren’t 16-Goff's numbers… Those are 13-Warner's numbers…
13-Warner: 2001: 10 / 2000: 4 (11 games) / 1999: 9
16-Goff: 2020: 7 (4 FLost) / 2019: 10 (5 FL) / 2018: 12 (5 FL)
So yes… He has had some fumbles… Slightly more than average in this era… But not compared to his earlier seasons… And I believe mostly attributed to the poor center of the o-line play… And a function of him being a traditional (less mobile / sitting duck) pocket passer…
You also have to take into account the lost fumbles… Statistically speaking, I have seen figures that show that either side recovering any particular fumble is equally probable (i.e. 50/50…)
...
So how about the Interceptions…?
13-Warner: 2001: 22 / 4.0%
2000: 18 / 5.2% (11 games)
1999: 13 / 2.6%
16-Goff: 2020: 13 / 2.4% (15 games)
2019: 16 / 2.6%
2018: 12 / 2.1%
The actual interception numbers, the percentages and the actual lost fumbles are low… We live in a different era
If we are looking at the traditional NFL QB Rating… We consider the 4 different components that make it up…
Comp%: 2020: 67.0% / 16-Goff's career high…
YPA: 2020: 7.2 / 16-Goff's lowest since his rookie and just below his career average… But still a decent number…
Int%: 2020: 2.4% / Right at 16-Goff's career avg and improved from 2019… Roughly middle of the pack for an NFL QB… But higher than the elite QB's…
TD%: 2020: 3.6% / This is very low number… Virtually the same as his 2019 figure… It is actually the one number that drags him down in terms of QB Rating… A function - it appears of the lack of long chunk plays beyond the 20 yd line resulting in TDs and poor Red Zone Efficiency… Plus the fact that they appear to rely more on the run once they get to the Red Zone… (Remember: They are playing in a 'Phone Booth'…!)
I also checked the accuracy figures listed in the Pro Football Reference and he constantly grades out as making more accurate throws than most - if not all - of the playoff QB… Strange…
Conclusion:
16-Goff is the last young QB of a dying breed… The traditional drop-back passer… Yes, he lacks mobility… And the coach has put him in a very small box and asked him to work magic… With a poor O-line with limited offensive weapons…
My personal opinion: It seems to me that Coach McVay has been working in his laboratory to try and develop an offensive scheme that could defeat a Bill Belichik (Patricia) defense… And appears to have completely discarded what got him here…
I believe you can still win with a drop-back BUT he needs to be surrounded by the right weapons… Mobile QB's have a much larger margin of error - able to improvise, to make something out of nothing… And are able to cover up a lot of weaknesses…
It will be interesting to see how this plays out…
(By the way… Next year (2021) I am expecting a rebuilding year… Too many lost free agents, not enough cap space and not enough draft capital…
16-Goff is owed $34.6 million in 2021… Cutting / trading him would result in a $49.8 million Dead Money hit…
I too would love to have Watson… But he will cost even more and we still have all the same issues I pointed out above about next year…
After that we will have a 1st round pick and can come back strong in 2022…
Colleges are pumping out mobile QB's right and left these days… We will get our shot at one… After all there are only 32 jobs out there for these guys…
