Better to finish 2nd than win the West?

Better to finish 2nd, than win the West?

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STAT TO QUESTION
Being No. 1 in the NFC West is better than being No. 2.

Obviously, there is a lot more football to play in the 2020 season, but an interesting thing is happening in the NFC West. The likelihood that the winner of the division will also win the NFC's sole playoff bye (by capturing the No. 1 seed) is decreasing; at the same time, the chances that three teams from the division will advance to the postseason are increasing. Thus, it could be more advantageous to not win the West, in terms of having better odds of winning at least one playoff game.

Heading into Sunday of Week 12, the 7-3 Los Angeles Rams are first in the NFC West, meaning they would have the No. 2 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today. Meanwhile, the second-place Seahawks (7-3) would have the No. 5 seed, and the third-place Cardinals (6-4) would have the No. 7 seed. The No. 2 Rams would then host the No. 7 Cardinals in a game where Los Angeles would only be favored in 53.2 percent of simulations. The Seahawks, however, would travel to face NFC East-leading Washington (4-7), which would be the No. 4 seed, in a game Seattle would be favored to win in 55.4 percent of outcomes.

This conversation is still very theoretical in late November. However, any member of the tightly bunched NFC East, where all four teams remain within range of the division title despite the fact that none has more than four wins, would be a more appealing playoff opponent for any NFC West team than any of the other NFC West contenders; consider that Seattle's win probability in a playoff game would be 58.9 percent against the Eagles, 59.8 percent against the Cowboys and 57.1 percent against the Giants.

Yes, playing for the bye is absolutely worth it, and with six intra-division contests remaining this season, the West certainly isn't decided yet (the Cardinals and Rams both have games left to play against each other). However, the chances are good that the NFC West contenders will beat each other up enough to help put the winner of another division in better position to secure the No. 1 seed, meaning it's likely every NFC West playoff participant will face a first-round game. As the season enters its final weeks, remember it could be more advantageous, especially in a season where home crowds are not a factor, to face the NFC East than keep replaying division opponents.


Just a coupla things.

How is the likelihood the division champ gets the bye decreasing? After a win to go to 7-3? Or that Taysom Hill played well in place of Drew Brees? Lets see him do that for 4 or 5 weeks. New Orleans has 4 road games in the last 6 though they play KC and Minnesota at home.

Seattle's win probability in a playoff game would be 58.9 percent against the Eagles, 59.8 percent against the Cowboys and 57.1 percent against the Giants? Well we're going to see what the actual result will be against the Eagles Monday, though it's just a regular season road game, as would the playoff game. They play the Giants at home next week and in three weeks, travel to the East Coast again to play Washington, who IMO, looked pretty good with Smith under center.

Like she said, there's still a lot of football to be played but I'd rather the Rams play one or two playoff games at home than on the East Coast.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/27/2020 02:03PM by Rams43.