What will Rams record be at the bye week?
The Rams have 3 road games and 2 tough home games prior to their Week 6 bye
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Kenneth Arthur
The Los Angeles Rams have perhaps the toughest schedule in the first five weeks of the 2024 season. Have I compared it to the 31 other schedules? No. But I will survive this situation by using the word “perhaps”.
And perhaps the Rams will pull off an upset or two in the first five weeks of the season.
The Rams schedule, which was released almost two months ago now, starts with back to back road games, then a third road game in Week 4, which is sandwiched by home games against teams that won playoff games in 2023. Can the Rams win the majority of those prior to an early Week 6 bye?
Week 1 - at Detroit, SNF
The Kansas City Chiefs found out last year that playing the Lions in Week 1 isn’t fun anymore. The Rams must go to Detroit for a rematch of last season’s wild card game at Ford Field that the Lions won 24-23. These teams will now have months to prepare for the rematch, and that seems to benefit Sean McVay more than it will Dan Campbell.
Giving McVay months to prepare is what helped L.A. mop the floor with Seattle 30-13 in Week 1 of last season.
But the Lions are expected to be top contenders for the NFC Championship and this is a game in Detroit.
Week 2 - at Arizona
The Rams have won 13 of the last 15 meetings and have won nine straight games in Arizona.
Week 3 - 49ers at SoFi
Finally a game at home and people will call it a 49ers home game.
San Francisco has won nine of the last 11 contests and the Rams haven’t won a regular season game at home against the 49ers since 2018. But for all intents and purposes, Rams-49ers should be two of the best games of the NFL season. I know that the games have not always necessarily been close, but it feels like these two teams are on completely even ground entering the season.
Still, you don’t want a “coinflip” at home after two straight road games to open the year.
Week 4 - at Chicago
People will talk about Caleb Williams, as they probably should, but the Bears were not that bad of a team last season. They had a top-5 run defense (which can be a problem for a McVay offense) and they were over .500 after an 0-4 start.
Now they have Williams, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, and the game is at Soldier Field.
Even if Williams struggles as a rookie, the Bears biggest advantage is how unpredictable they will be on offense after three years that had to be molded around a quarterback who is primarily a rushing threat. Williams is not Justin Fields and regardless of value, that makes the Bears a little bit more mysterious simply out of the need to completely start over.
Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron spent several years on the Rams staff, but that never helped him do that much scoring against his former boss when he was coordinator for the Seahawks.
Week 5 - Packers at SoFi
Another meeting between former Rams employees: First you’ve got Brad Holmes in Week 1, then Waldron in Week 4, and now Matt LaFleur in Week 5.
LaFleur’s head-to-head record against McVay? 4-0.
That includes the 2020 playoffs, and one win over McVay in each of the past three seasons since then. However, all four games were at Lambeau Field.
And last year’s game was started by Brett Rypien, so it should not count.
2022’s game was Aaron Rodgers against Baker Mayfield, so it should not count.
The 2020 playoff games were all screwy because of the quarterback controversy, but it could probably count.
2021 seems to count, but the Rams won the Super Bowl.
All that nonsense being written, the Packers are a good team and this feels like another coinflip to me. Even if Jordan Love could become “less good” again, so too could the Rams need to go to their backup quarterback for some reason. Which as you just saw, happens a lot against the Packers.
Rams record at the bye?
I do not do predictions. I think what you learn from above is more useful than a prediction, even if the Rams are as good as they’re capable of being, I believe that all of those first five contests are extremely close matchups outside of the Cardinals game. No offense to Arizona, but based on historical evidence I think it is at least fair to say that if the Rams want to be a good team, then they need to win their games against the Cardinals. However, winning road games within the division is perhaps (PERHAPS!) just as hard as beating the Packers in Lambeau or the 49ers at SoFi.
I think that three of the first five games are against teams that could win the Super Bowl, and so too could the Rams.
And the Bears, I don’t see them as Super Bowl contenders, but they could be like the 2022 Lions knocking on the door of the playoffs.
So, if the Rams are going to be a good team this year, I would expect for them to win games against opponents like the Cardinals. And I would expect that the other four games could be too close to call, so you can probably assume a record prediction from that: 1-0 + 2-2, but it could be 3-1 or 1-3.
