I tried to bring this up and was roasted over an open fire.
The odds of getting a decent (not great) NFL starter....let's say along the lines of a Cousins....is 1 out of 4 picks in the 1st round. And if you break that down a little further, to get a true stud is less than 1 in 10, a really good starter about 1 in 5.
And a team is going to go all in to take that big of a risk?
This is why if a team has an upper tier QB (like the Rams) you don't spend a top pick as the heir apparent. The odds are heavily against you.
Rather you spend from around the 3rd round on every year in hopes of hitting on it.
Sure, if you are a QB poor team, you pretty much have only 1 avenue to get a starter....the draft.
But, for an admired, winning team in a huge market city like the Rams? You go for a trade or FA to pick up a proven winner. No need to take the risks that a QB poor team must. Heck, I'd take a Baker Mayfield over any of these guys in the draft, including Mr. paint your nails, Caleb Williams. That guy scares the heck out of me. Shoot, he's already received more money for playing college ball than he'll get in the 1st year of his NFL contract chosen #1.
