My take on prospects with 1st round grades after the combine

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Deadpool
I'm still running thru combine footage, as I spent most of the weekend in and out of the hospital with my future father in law. Nothing real serious, but hard to watch a combine while traveling and/or in the hospital chatting with doctors.

But I always get a kick out of combine winners and losers, sure some may slide around a little, but for the most part not much changes. I am a ways from final grades, but I'll go position by position to give you guys some food for thought. Feel free to disagree and make a case for or against anyone on this list. And remember, this is not final.

QB:
1st round locks: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy
1st round Most likely: Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix
Borderline 1st Rounders: None

The first 3 have been locks for ever, I've had McCarthy as QB4 for quite some time, and it sounds like he picked up a ton of steam during the combine. I don't think he makes it out of the top 10 at this point. As far as Penix goes, I have said forever that his medicals will mean everything. I don't care about the age, and I doubt teams do either. Teams never draft players with their 2nd contract in mind. Supposedly he passed his med eval with "flying colors" this should be enough for a QB hungry team to draft him in round 1 and get that 5th year option. Nix, IMO is a 2nd round grade, but there are just too many teams out there that need a QB and not enough FA QBs to go around. The Free agent market looks like Wilson and Cousins. But Chicago is taking Williams, Wash., NE, Denver, Atl, Minn. and LV all need QBs. Cousins and Wilson solve 2 of the 8, still leaving 6 teams and that doesn't even include NYG.

RB:
1st round locks: None
1st round most likely: None
Borderline 1st rounders: None

This has to be one of the weakest RB groups I have seen in a while. I love the day 3 value, but I'm not sure I will have even 1 RB with a 2nd round grade.

WR:
1st round locks: Harrison Jr, Nabers, Odunze, Thomas Jr,
1st round most likely: Keon Coleman
Borderline 1st rounders: Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Legette, Troy Franklin

Thats 10 guys that could possibly see thier names called in the 1st round or almost 1/3rd of the 1st round. It isn't happening. Thomas Jr closed the gap on the top 3 just like Alyo predicted and seems like a top 15 pick IMO. Coleman ran slower than I expected, and he could slide down and or out of the 1st. But I probably will still have a 1st round grade on him due to his size, physicality and route running. The last group I will probably not have 1st round grades on, but I can make a case for every one of them getting picked in round 1. Worthy on his mind blowing speed, Mitchell on his size/speed combo, McConkey is the top route runner in the draft and ran fast, Legette ran fast and has great size/physicality and Franklin is tall with 4.4 speed and plays up to that. After the top 4, it will be what teams covet in a WR or what they need to flesh out their roster.

TE:
1st round locks: Brock Bowers
1st round most likely: None
Borderline 1st rounders: None

TE is a lot like the RB class except it has a real stud at the top. Bowers is a top 10 talent, not sure where he fits into the draft as far as team fit, but he is a lock and no other TE has done enough at the Senior Bowl and combine to move my needle to even consider TE2 in the first round. And TBH, I haven't come up with TE 2 or 3 yet. Probably Sanders then Sinnott.

OT:
1st round locks: Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga
1st round most likely: JC Latham, Amarius Mims
Borderline 1st rounders: Tyler Guyton

Really decent class overall at the top, but thins out quickly after the 1st half of round 2 IMO. Alt and Fashanu are top 10 picks, I really like Fuaga, esp as a run blocker, even though he is a RT. Latham is a guy I will have a borderline top 32 grade on, He's a big dude that plays RT, but is super athletic and not as powerful as his build/size suggests. I think he has the athleticism to move to the left side, but I have projecting that. Mims is one of the ultimate boom/bust kids in the draft, lab built size and athleticism to be a all pro LT, but only 8 starts and injuries have plagued him and he got injured at the combine. I will not have a 1st round grade on Guyton, but it sounds like teams love this kid. I wouldn't be shocked to see him get drafted before the Rams pick at 19.

IOL:
1st round locks: Troy Fautanu, Jackson Powers-Johnson
1st round most likely: Graham Barton
Borderline 1st rounders: Christian Haynes

Lighter than the OTs as expected, Fautanu is only 6'-4" but meets the 34" arm requirement for OTs at 34.5", I will probably list him as OL on my board as I like him better as a OG, but could see him easily being a LT. JP-J is an absolute stud and has been crushing it in the post season. Barton is a OT that will move inside, and he has played OC in college and I think you could draft him to play OG or OC, and in a pinch (injuries) move him to OT. Smart, nasty and position versatility should get him into the 1st.

IDL:
1st round locks: Johnny Newton
1st round most likely: None
Borderline 1st rounders: Byron Murphy II, Braden Fiske

Newton is an undersized gap wrecker that reminds me of Turner a bit. He isn't a top 10 type of guy, but he is top 20 IMO. After that I will have no 1st round grades on guys. Murphy II I will have as most likely my DT3 behind Sweat, but it seems like teams love him. Fiske is having himself an offseason, I oriiginally had him as 3rd rounder, because his play speed seemed sluggish, but he dominated the Senior Bowl and the combine and I will have him locked in as 2nd rounder, he could, in theory push himself into the back of 1st. Just not for me. As far as Sweat goes, I don't have him on this list at all, and honestly I think I like him more that any other guy out there. A solid day 2 guy (I will grade him round 2, I think he goes round 3. How's that for not copy pasting my draft board)

Edge:
IDL:
1st round locks: Laiatu Latu, Dallas Turner, Jared Verse
1st round most likely: Chop Robinson
Borderline 1st rounders: Darius Robinson

Latu isn't the most explosive athlete, but it sounds like his med eval was good, and he is an advanced pass rusher, plug and play day 1. Turner is a freakish athlete with film to back it up, Verse is looking more and more like a 43 DE, but he checks all the boxes either way. Robinson is another ultimate boom/bust type. Tested out of the gym as expected, but on field production lacked. I am still figuring out where he fits my board. I am ALMOST certain a team takes a risk in the first by betting on his athletic traits/size/motor. I think i grade him as a 1st because he has no stop in him with that motor, makes me think with coaching he'll be more than fine. Robinson blew up the Senior Bowl, but tested exactly like I thought he would according to the games I saw. I had him early day 2 and he is still there. But pass rushers are a premium, so I can see the case for day 1.

LB:
1st round locks: none
1st round most likely: none
Borderline 1st rounders: Edgerrin Cooper, Payton Wilson

Not a fantastic group, but value in day 2 and 3 is there. Copper had a nice combine I felt, but I never had a 1st round grade on him due to some inconsistency I saw in games and he hasn't changed my mind. I love Wilson, but age, injuries and missed tackles are enough for me to keep him from round 1. I honestly do not believe a LBer will go round 1 just like RB and S.

CB:
1st round locks: Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, Arnold, Nate Wiggins
1st round most likely: Kool-Aid McKinstry
Borderline 1st rounders: Ennis Rakestraw Jr.

Mitchell has been THE post season MVP. And his play backed it up. Scheme versatile, physical and a ball hawk all in a great size/athletic package. Sign me up. Oh, and he didn't transfer out and take the bag as the kids say. I appreciate the loyalty. DeJean can play outside, slot and safety and is an explosive punt returner. Fits perfectly in a zone heavy scheme and can travel. Arnold is athletic, scheme diverse and had a better season than McKinstry. He climbed for me this year. The combine just kinda verified what I already thought I knew. Arrow pointing up on this kid. Wiggins can fly as we all saw. He is a dawg on the field as well. He's a zone CB. My biggest concern is his frame. There is just very little room to add weight as he is ultra narrow from the chest down. McKinstry is a press man only and those seem to be less and less in demand. I thought he was very consistent this year. I can see him slipping to 33 like like Porter Jr did last year. I threw Rakestraw into the mix just because I want to get this off my chest. He is a press man only that gets grabby and seems completely lost in zone coverage. Super scheme specific, I never saw him as a 1st rounder and I still don't.

S:
1st round locks: none
1st round most likely: none
Borderline 1st rounders: Tyler Nubin, Kamren Kinchens

Another group that isn't top heavy but has value on days 2 and 3. Nubin has a chance at his pro day to push himself into day 1 range, but to me, he is a day 2 guy. Kinchens tested not as well as I thought he would. I had concerns about his range and this kinda backed that up. I also saw him give up some big plays. That said, he is physical and seems like he sees things really well and day 2 is his sweet spot. If teams consider DeJean as a SAF, he would be SAF1. And the only round 1 safety grade. I still like him as a CB though.

RECAP:
I have 22 1st round locks. Or guys I will have 1st round grades on. That seems consistent with what I have had in years past. 1st round likely (guys that should end up in the 1st round) is 8. Bringing my total to 30 if I didn't add wrong. Leaving 2 guys from the "Borderline 1st rounders" group of 15 to round out the 2nd round.

This tells me if you aren't sold on a guy at 19, that trading down is probably a great move adding value and picks at the same time. I really like the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year, so it wouldn't hurt my feelings if they added more of those picks.

EDIT:
Forgot Cooper DeJean somehow. Even though he is one of my favorite players in the draft and has been since August. Thanks for the catch Speed. I also edited my totals to reflect 1 additional 1st round lock.