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NFL offseason reporting = a lesson in recency bias.

May 19, 2023 10:51AM
It's not just the Rams - Rams won super bowl in 2021 - so they'll be good in 2022. Rams sucked in 2022 so they'll suck in 2023. It's all the teams. Division predictions, etc. Playoff teams change every year, division standings change, but most of the talking heads can't see past their impressions from the most recent season.

Projecting past events into future predictions does not work very well - especially with how much roster churn there is every year in the nfl.

How many saw the Seahawks in the playoffs last year? Or the dumpster fire that was the Broncos offense? Not that many that I recall. In fact - many said the AFC West was going to be the best division in football. Yeah, no.

Now they're saying the NFC east is the best. But will it be? Only if everything that happened last year - happens alomost exactly the same way it did this year. So, make your bets accordingly.

I look at the start of every season as a whole lineup of multiverses - with different outcomes in each. At some point only one timeline remains and it's probably not the one the 'experts' thought it was going to be.
SubjectAuthorViewsPosted

  NFL offseason reporting = a lesson in recency bias.

promomasterj238May 19, 2023 10:51AM

  Re: NFL offseason reporting = a lesson in recency bias.

mtramfan68May 19, 2023 11:22AM

  Did the Seahwaks lose 14 starters

ferragamo7963May 19, 2023 07:31PM

  the number of "experts" has increased tenfold

21Dog35May 20, 2023 04:58AM

  And Rams fans fall into it or think same way

JimYoungblood5334May 21, 2023 08:29AM