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zn
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max
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waterfield
Correct. No evidence whatsoever that warmer weather will do the trick. The only way we know now is to follow the CDC guidelines.
I don't believe anyone knows, including the CDC. They are all guessing.
I do know that if I was in my 20's I wouldn't be worried much at all.
That's because if you were in your 20s, like me in my 20s, you wouldn't be smart enough to think it's not about you, it;s how you can infect others if you;re a carrier.
One of the things that's really distinguishes this thing is asymptomatic transmission. With this you can be asymptomatic for days, or not even get sick, and you still pass it on. So the fatality rate does not sound so bad taken in itself--but the more people that get infect, the number of fatalities goes up with it.
Plus it has a high transmission rate. Higher than the flu. With the flu, which does not include asymptomatic transmission, the transmission rate is 1.5. Every person infected will infect 1.5 others. With covid-19 it could be as high as 6.6. That means if one person gets it then 6.6 can get it from them, then that's 45.56, then that's 287.5...all in a factor of 3.
If the fatality rate really is 1.3 (and that's a low estimate) then when 100 M people get it that's 1.3 M deaths.
And no the CDC is not "guessing." They're keeping up with the science and the numbers on a moving target. That's completely different from "guessing."
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I agree that I wouldn't be as smart if I was in my 20's. But I would be smart enough not to go near any older people. And I don't trust the CDC as much as you do.
I don't believe the 6.6 number. Actually, I'm gonna wait to see how this thing fleshes out over the next few months before I believe anything. I'm in a hot zone in Fairfield CT, and as of 5/9/20, 98.2% of all fatalities are among people over 60. And none are under 40.
~ max ~
“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton
