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dzrams
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LMU93
You have to look at Demarco Murray and think about that in context of Gurley. Very few RBs are anywhere near as productive in years 7 and beyond as they are in years 1-6. In Murray's case he was the league's most productive back in his 4th year and it was downhill from there. You can certainly argue that he'd have likely been better off staying in Dallas. But still, after 7 years he is now out of the league.
Arian Foster dropped off a cliff after year 6. Many more examples. There are exceptions of course- LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, etc. But they are just that, exceptions. If I am the Rams I am hoping to get two more great years from Gurley, franchise him in 2020 and then move on.
Sorry, just how I see it....
Historical data and studies back your point here up. I don't have a link but a few months ago I read studies stating that RB production drops off a cliff on average around year 7.
It's really tough to go by this when you have exceptional RBs like Gurley though. There will be a temptation to see if he can buck that trend.
Usually the ones that drop off a cliff have injury issues.....the great ones usually give you 9 good years if they stay healthy.
It's a young mans game though.....
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