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Deadpool
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Rams_81
people expectations on hits with draft picks are not realistic. Love to see a percentage of hits by round by team across the league to put more realistic expectations.
I do know the foundation of Quick Gurley Quinn and Austin is something that many teams do not have.
I do know that 3 of these 4 are down a little right now, but I believe that will change.
Quick was 33rd overall, Or very close to a 1st round pick. He is a miss. And as far as a foundation guy, I wouldn't bet on him being resigned.
Austin was 8th overall - In a previous post I mentioned Green, Jones, Beckham all drafted around 6, all hits. Austin is an overpaid gadget player. Not a true #1 WR that teams gameplan around. Miss
Gurley - He might be a miss or a hit, but you know why we cannot tell? because of all the misses on that OL.
Which brings me to:
Greg Robinson - Miss, there is just no way around it. He has time, but he has a bad rep and he hasn't shown me anything that leads me to believe he will get it mentally.
As far as Quinn, cannot count him for Snead since that wasn't his pick, and as far as a foundation piece he better figure a way to stay healthy because 7 sacks over his last 16 games is not exactly tearing up the NFL.
Listen, I gave the Snead/Fisher combo a very good hit % as far as defensive picks. I have no unrealistic expectations about draft picks and where they are drafted. I spend the better part of my winter focused on the draft. I stand by my statement that they have missed repeatedly on the offensive side of the ball and it shows when year in and year out the Rams have a bottom 5 offense.
I didn't say it was a foundation.
I think that being aware of hit percentages is a good first step. It gets us away from unreal expectations and puts us in a place where we can have more grounded views of this. Remember the key to it is, find out what a good hit percentage IS throughout the league. The best I could do was look at a few teams but still it made a difference to know that much.
And...as I said...having a basic hit percentage is not the same as grading. Both Quick and Jeffrey or Hilton count as hits in the 2012 draft, the way I do it, but then you would grade each pick differently.
I think you and I, when it comes to offensive drafting, are just putting it differently. They may even just be minor differences. But where I come from is this. In terms of perspective, the most I will say about the Rams offensive picks is that they could be better...but I do not agree that they are terrible. Terrible is 2006-2008. And at the same time I won't close the book on it. There's a chance they look at lot better when it comes to offensive drafting after we see what happens with Gurley, Havenstein, Brown, Goff, Mannion, Cooper, and Higbee. So I have not shut the book on them.
I never pretend to be a draft guru, and I never rank dozens to hundreds of players before a draft. I enjoy reading people like you that do do that. It's a pleasure, it's fun.
BUT once they've picked their guys and the bullets start flying, I reserve the right to see Rams drafts in my own way. My line is what I said it was---they have mixed results from prior to 2015, though some of that was fate (every receiver improved this year, how would Bailey have looked if he hadn't been shot? People who dismiss that, I remind them that I wrote off Quick before this season...and so Bailey could also have stepped up). But then it is too soon to judge the players taken in 2015 and 2016, and I see signs that they could develop in very positive ways.
Back to the simpler stuff. Finding out hit percentages for good drafting teams adds ballast to these discussions. I really do believe that. But then as I said that's not the final word on drafting. It's just a good element to add.
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