When we have a difficult choice of any kind we should weigh risk versus reward. If we apply this to the fake punt decision we have the following....
Scenario: Rams ball 4th and 5 on their own 23 yard line with 3:48 in the 4th quarter down in score 19-23 in the LA Coliseum.
REWARD
Best case: Bills are caught off guard and Marquez takes it all the way for a TD or very long gain
Next best case: Bills are surprised and Marquez gets the 5 or more yards, and there's 70 or so yards to go still down 4 with the ball
RISK
Worst case: Don't pick up the 5 or more and leave the Bills in scoring position, defense can't hold and Bills score 7 to extend lead to 11 and essentially win
Next worse case: Don't pick up the 5 or more and leave the Bills in scoring position, defense/ST can't stop FG and they are down a TD with limited time remaining
In all likelihood this comes down to pick it up and keep the drive alive or fail to and lose the game almost surely. My sense of reason says Jeff Fisher should have never even contemplated that risky call of a fake punt. A good staff perhaps McGinnis or Williams or even Singletary should have said "Don't do it coach, trust our defense." You've got one of the best punters to kick it away and one of the best defenses and a home Los Angeles crowd. A good coach goes off of feel for the game but he made a monumentally bad decision here. I hate the call!
For those who say, we'd be praising him if he converted it. I say no, this is a bad decision period.
I can live with Fisher's brand of defense, field position, running game, special teams football. His teams defenses are tough and menacing. I just don't trust his logic and decision making and this one is so contrary to a field position game we should be focused on at all times. I personally hope that's the last fake for Fisher of any kind in our own half, ever! Horrible!
