Fixing offensive Offenses…

Fixing Offensive Offenses Rams​

[www.footballoutsiders.com]


FL Week 6 - It's Week 6 in the NFL, and it's not too early to panic. It is, however, too early to despair.

At this point last season, the Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, and San Francisco 49ers were all sitting at 2-3, with various degrees of hair-pulling angst spread between them.

That being said, there are more than a handful of teams that need to correct things right now, or a once-promising season is going to end up being a lost year. Offense, in particular, has been down around the league—the lowest-scoring offensive environment since 2017, with the fewest truly high-scoring teams since 2008. And there are a few teams that are dragging the pack down more than others, teams we expected to be good who have yet to pick themselves up off the starting line.
Los Angeles Rams​

Preseason Projected Offensive DVOA: 6.7%
Current Offensive DVOA: -12.4%
Current Playoff Odds: 33.7%
Biggest Culprit: A Kupp Runneth Under

The following is a complete list of Rams offensive players who have been good this season:

Cooper Kupp
End of list.

Oh, you could argue that Tyler Higbee (16th in tight end receiving DYAR) has been perfectly adequate, and the tackles (Joseph Noteboom and Rob Havenstein) are holding their own in run blocking, and Alaric Jackson has been doing more than adequate for a second-year UDFA and third-string player forced into a starting role due to injury. We can nitpick the definition of "good" all we want, but the Rams sit 26th in offensive DVOA because everything that could have gone wrong more or less has.

Unlike the Colts' total collapse, this is one we could have seen coming. And, in fact, we kinda did. The Rams offense lost two of their top three receivers, their leading rusher, and two starting linemen. The Rams chapter in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022 worried that Allen Robinson was running on fumes, that Cam Akers' struggles in the postseason would continue into the fall, and the lack of depth on the offensive line would be an issue, all of which have come to pass. And the player comments worried about Stafford's throwing elbow and his tendency for throwing terrible interceptions, which, yup, that seems about right as well. The Rams were gambling on things coming together, and its bad luck that pretty much every gamble they made has gone wrong so far.

The biggest problem is the offensive line, and the biggest thing that will fix it is time. After the bye week, the Rams should get both center Brian Allen and guard David Edwards back. Coleman Shelton should be back by the end of the year as well. No, none of them are Andrew Whitworth, but no team is going to look good when down to their third-string center. Just having Allen out there making line calls rather than the over-matched Jeremiah Kolone is going to be a huge boost. A good portion of the Rams' 25.2% pressure rate has been defenders unblocked because of miscommunications on the line—the Rams are not being out-physicalled, they're just getting schooled over and over on twists and stunts. Matt Skura, who was just added to the active roster, won't be a long-term solution, but he should at least allow the offensive line to know where the pressure is coming from until the starters come back.

Even some of the players who have been playing should be helped with time. Noteboom has struggled against the pass rush, but he strained his MCL in the opener against the Bills and hasn't been 100% out there; a week off is bound to do him some good as well. It's tempting to blame the Rams' struggles along the line on their stars-and-scrubs model, but even teams teeming with depth would be hard-pressed to overcome all the injuries the Rams have had upfront. With the majority those injuries being short-term problems, this is something that should work its way out over the course of the year. Mostly.

But that won't help the skill position players! Allen Robinson simply cannot get separation—just 2.5 yards of separation on his targets, per Next Gen Stats, and that's not including defenders being draped all over him on all the plays where he's not being targeted. Robinson's struggles last year were not just a case of the Chicago offense not suiting him; Robinson seems to be toast. And with Robinson flailing, and Kupp being Regular Great instead of All-Time Great, there's just not a lot there. Higbee is the Rams' second-leading target behind Kupp, and he has been fine, but not "this is our second target" fine. Then you have receiver-slash-fullback Ben Skowronek, and then the other running back, Darrell Henderson, next on the list of receptions. That's not a Super Bowl team. That's not a playoff team. That's a team in desperate need of help. Recent reports have Odell Beckham unlikely to come back, tweeting out that he only got the "lowest of low offers" from the team in his quest to return in November. While some of that is OBJ enjoying playing the media, the Rams better do everything they can to placate him, because boy oh boy could they use a healthy OBJ in their lineup. That, or they need to go out and trade for someone. They still have a second- and third-round pick they're not using; maybe they can convince the Panthers to have that fire sale after all?