Brutal handicappers take of game tonight

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San Francisco has covered the last five meetings with the Rams, since 2020, when including the playoffs. In the same exact spot last year on a Monday Night, the Niners blew out the Rams 31-10 as four point underdogs at home. They realistically should have beaten the Rams in the NFC Title game and was a dropped interception away from going to the Super Bowl. Of Matthew Stafford’s 21 games last year, his EPA performances against this San Francisco defense produced outcomes that ranked 9th, 13th and 20th out of those games. So only one game, week 18 at home, was an above average performance last year. His Monday Night game in San Francisco was his 2nd worst game all season.

The reason that this defense has Stafford’s number of late is because they rarely blitz and rely on their excellent front four to generate a bunch of pressure. Stafford excels when defenses bring blitzers and can find Cooper Kupp, mainly, in a 1-1 matchup that he will almost always win. Stafford is #2 among NFL QBs in PFF grade when facing the blitz after finishing 3rd last year. He was 11th last year and 18th this year against non blitzes. The Niners blitz at the 3rd lowest rate in the NFL. In this game I expect more of the same but instead of facing this front with one of the better pass blocking offensive line’s like they did last year, the Rams will have to do it with one that is being held together by tape. The Rams OL is 28th in pass block efficiency and the Niners present the same problem that the Bills presented and won thoroughly on in week 1. Stafford also doesn’t have non Kupp options to attack with like last year in Odell Beckham Jr. Allen Robinson has been one of the biggest disappointments this season and hasn’t even reached 90 total yards in the first three games. The Niners are #1 in fewest yards per play allowed and #1 in my drive success rate metric on defense. The Rams offensive line is down multiple starters and Center Brian Allen is Questionable this week. I think there is a case where the Rams offensive is completely overwhelmed on Monday.

The Niners offense, mainly Jimmy G, did struggle against a really good Broncos defense on Sunday night but at home and against an overrated Rams defense, they should find more success. They will be without stud LT Trent Williams, but the Rams have generated the single lowest pressure rate in the NFL so far, and that is while blitzing at a top 10 rate. They can’t get any pressure and at home, having a backup at LT shouldn’t be a major cause for concern. In addition, the Rams secondary continues to be ravaged by injury. CBs Cobie Durant, David Long Jr., and starting Safety Jordan Fuller have not practiced as of late in the week and are all iffy for Monday. CB Derion Kendrick has also been limited due to a concussion. No matter who the Rams end up throwing out there on Monday, the Niners and Kyle Shanahan should find major holes.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/03/2022 01:27PM by Hazlet Hacksaw.