PARAM with some excellent thoughts on RB’s…

Here’s PARAM…

Bill Polian and Solomon Wilcotts were discussing running backs in the draft, drafting running backs etc.. Polian said, "I've heard people say, you shouldn't take running backs in the first round because they don't last that long. That's ridiculous. Look at Edgerrin James, Jim Brown, Marshall Faulk" Wilcotts added "yeah and Emmitt...he-he-he-he". Polian continued about why they don't last long....."they take a viscous beating, particularly in pass pro" and added, "it's smart not to give them a second contract".

So which is it? They last long or shouldn't get a second contract.

Pro-Football-Reference has 250 running back listed from Emmitt to Ron Dayne (#250). If you look at the top of that list you'll find (with the exception of Jim Brown and Eddie George) 30 some running backs who played 10 years or more. With rare exception, by year 11 (age 31 or 32) their production dipped markedly. That list shows 250 running backs who managed to gain 3722 yards or more in their career. There are probably another 500 to 1,000 who gained less. So we should go by those rare specimens who last 10 years plus?

I do agree with Polian on a couple of things. "Pass pro is a severe collision" and "they shouldn't get 2nd contracts". You only need to look no further than Todd Gurley or Christian McCaffrey. The #1 active RB in longevity is Adrian Peterson (17 years) and he's only had one 1,000 yard season in the last 5 (1042 in 2018). The next active RB on the list is Mark Ingram, 7878 yards in 12 years or 657 yds/season. Not exactly the poster boy for drafting a guy high. Longevity is good, so long as production is good.

Another thing Polian touched on was the guys he likes in this years draft and he constantly cited "production", as in multi year production on the college level. I can agree you want that but that's also a double edged sword. Those guys have more wear and tear on them. That's why I like D'Vonte Price (FIU) and Brian Robinson (Alabama) or Rachaad White in the draft. The first two are 5 year college players but with limited wear and tear and White has limited carries but was productive last year. Robinson had 271 carries in 2021 but never registered 100 in the previous 4 years (545 total). Price had 129 carries this season and has just 369 over 5 years. White has 224 carries the last 2 years. And they're all over 6'0" and 200 lbs.

Polian cited guys like Breece Hall (Iowa St). I agree he's a capable RB with great production in his 3 year college career.....3941 yards but he's amassed 718 carries those 3 years. I guess it depends on what you're looking for in a RB. If you subscribe to that "no 2nd contract" approach, then Hall or others like him would be fine. For the Rams I hope they subscribe to that theory and take a big guy in this year's draft. We need somebody who can gain those 2 or 3 yards when we need them to. I'm hoping for D'Vonte Price or Rachaad White, Brian Robinson if those guys are off the board at #142 or #175. I feel pretty confident we're going to take a RB with one of the first 3 selections.