Rams vs Packers preview: Who has the advantage in week 12?

Rams vs. Packers preview: Who has the advantage in Week 12?

[theramswire.usatoday.com]

Cameron DaSilva


The Rams will return to the building where their 2020 season ended this Sunday when they visit Lambeau Field for a massive matchup with the Green Bay Packers. The winner will move closer to securing a top-four seed in the NFC and possibly a first-round bye, while the loser will fall further behind the conference-leading Cardinals.

The Rams are healthy and at near-full strength for this one, which isn’t something the injury-ravaged Packers can say. However, the Rams have also lost two straight and looked completely out of sync against the Titans and 49ers.

To preview this one, we caught up with Zach Kruse of Packers Wire, debating which team has the advantage in five key categories. Unsurprisingly, there isn’t much of a gap between the Rams and Packers, which should make for a thrilling game this weekend.

Quarterback play


(AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)
Rams Wire: The Rams have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Matthew Stafford. However, the guy Green Bay has under center is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and one of the best this game has ever seen. Even with Aaron Rodgers playing through a toe injury that’s clearly very painful, the Packers have the advantage at quarterback. Rodgers is less turnover-prone, is better at making plays outside the pocket and his chemistry with Davante Adams is off the charts. This is an excellent quarterback matchup, but one that slightly favors the Packers – even with how well Stafford has been playing.

Packers Wire: This should be a terrific quarterback matchup between two veteran passers with elite arms. Stafford, the ex-Lion, is fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes and passer rating entering Week 12. He’s always been one of the most talented throwers of the football in the game. Now, he has the coach, scheme and playmakers to go with the talent. Rodgers didn’t practice this week and is dealing with severe pain in his fractured toe, but he’s coming off one of his best performances of the season last week in Minnesota. The edge here goes to the Rodgers and the Packers, but the Rams passing game with Stafford is far more capable of matching Green Bay than with Jared Goff during the playoff game in January.

Advantage: Packers

Line of scrimmage


Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
Rams Wire: If the Packers were healthy, this would likely be a push. But with David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins both out, and Rashan Gary likely not at 100% even if he plays, the Rams have the edge in this department. Their offensive line is playing some outstanding football right now, allowing a pressure rate of only 13.1% on the year, according to Pro Football Reference. The Packers are allowing pressure on 23.8% of Rodgers’ drop backs, which isn’t bad but it’s significantly more than Stafford has been pressured – and now they’ll be missing two of their best linemen. On defense, the Rams have Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller. Kenny Clark is an absolute stud, but that trio is among the best in football.

Packers Wire: Big advantage here for the Rams. The Packers offensive line is without three preferred starters, including the line’s two best players (David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins), and the defensive front is dealing with a number of issues at edge rusher. Can a starting group consisting of Yosh Nijman, Jon Runyan, Lucas Patrick, Royce Newman and Billy Turner open lanes in the run game and keep the Rams pass-rushers off Rodgers? It will be a huge challenge. The defense is without All-Pro outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary is nursing an elbow injury, so Preston Smith and Kenny Clark need to be game-changers on Sunday. The Packers won the game in January by dominating the line of scrimmage, but repeating the accomplishment will be very difficult in the rematch.

Advantage: Rams

Turnovers



Rams Wire: The Packers have only turned the ball over nine times this season, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. Rodgers has only thrown four interceptions, Jordan Love threw one, and the Packers lost four fumbles as a team. The Rams only have 11 interceptions in 10 games, too, which isn’t very many. But in the last two games, Stafford has thrown four picks, including two pick-sixes. Not all of them were his fault, but the Rams must cut down on the turnovers – particularly Stafford, who’s thrown eight interceptions. I give the slight edge to the Packers in this category.

Packers Wire: The Packers are plus-seven in the turnover department and 8-0 when they win the turnover battle this season. They’d probably be 9-0 if they secured just one of the half-dozen turnover opportunities presented last week in Minnesota. This team is all about protecting the ball, especially in the passing game, and then getting one or two game-changing takeaways on defense. Stafford has always been a bit of a gambler, and he threw four interceptions during the two-game losing streak. Matt LaFleur’s team needs to capitalize Sunday. Overall, the Packers are 8-0 when they get at least one turnover and 0-3 when they don’t. If the Rams can play mistake-free, they’ll have a great chance to win.

Advantage: Packers

Situational


(AP Photo/John McCoy)
Rams Wire: Neither the Rams nor the Packers have been very good in the red zone this season. The Rams are scoring touchdowns on 60% of their trips inside the 20, which is 14th in the NFL. The Packers rank 24th with a touchdown rate of 54.8%, which is stunning considering they have Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and A.J. Dillon. On third down, the Rams and Packers are close, each converting on about 42% of their attempts, which puts them both in the top 11. Sean McVay must improve his red zone play calling and decision-making on fourth down where he can tend to be too conservative by kicking instead of going for it.

Packers Wire: The numbers show that the Packers aren’t great in any meaningful situation this season, both on offense or defense. There have been flashes in the red zone for each side but inconsistency has been the theme. Rodgers not practicing all week probably isn’t a big help for improving in the important situations, especially the red zone. The Rams aren’t great in any one category either, so maybe this is a draw. One team could gain a big advantage in this game if they are able to control third down and the red zone.

Advantage: Push

Injury situation


Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Rams Wire: There’s absolutely no doubt about this category. The Rams are very clearly the healthier team, coming off their Week 11 bye and only listing two players as questionable to play. The Packers have three players questionable (Gary, Jones and Allen Lazard), two ruled out (Bakhtiari and Malik Taylor) and one doubtful (Kevin King). They’re as banged up as any team in the NFL right now, and will also be missing the incredibly versatile Jenkins. The Rams are missing Sebastian Joseph-Day at nose tackle, but that’s not a new injury. They’re pretty healthy considering it’s Week 12.

Packers Wire: The Packers have been fighting an uphill battle with injuries all season. This week is no different. The offensive line is decimated, and both the edge rusher and cornerback positions are dealing with significant injuries. Big advantage here to the Rams, who are mostly healthy and coming off the bye week.

Advantage: Rams

Verdict: Even


Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
There’s a reason the spread for this game has gone from Packers -1.5 to Rams -1.5, gradually moving in the last two weeks. They’re evenly matched teams who are both almost sure to make the playoffs. The Rams might have a slight edge in some departments, but the Packers have the great equalizer in Rodgers and have found ways to win games despite missing key players this season. It should be a close, back-and-forth game at Lambeau on Sunday afternoon.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/27/2021 08:01AM by Rams43.