3 ways the Rams playoff hopes could derail in 2021…

Three ways the team’s playoff hopes could derail in 2021​

[ramblinfan.com]

It’s June 2021, and the LA Rams are girding their loins for the upcoming NFL season. This is a year where the LA Rams are once more expected to play very well. Many analysts are predicting the Rams to win the NFC West, and some are already on record claiming that the team will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVI. Whew! Pretty lofty expectations before a single NFL snap. How do you feel about all of that?

Okay, if you have bothered to look at the calendar, you’ll notice that we are in the dog days of the NFL season. The only news to report right now are first-blush impressions out of a few days of OTAs. If you expect some hard-hitting news at this time of year, you’ve set your sights way too high. There is a limit over what we can report as facts. Instead, this is a time of year to measure out expectations, get a feel of the team’s potential, and layout the reasons for these projections.

With newly refurbished rosters, plenty of practices, preseason games, and training camp sessions between now and the NFL season, it’s a time of hope and optimism. It’s a time to condense the difficult arduous career path of rookies and point to the distant finish line of success, sharing that tale now without the struggles, stumbles, and stymied efforts along the way.

It’s that time of year where anticipation is the order of the day, and the nature of football fans is to presume the most optimistic of outlooks when facing hard data of historic trends. Analysts feed that desire to anticipate what might happen. But there are two sides to the coin here. The Rams face a double-edged sword, a path of fortune or failure. So let’s pause a moment to discuss three ways that this team’s playoff hopes might derail.

Too long to get on track

If you haven’t noticed, the Rams have a lot of moving parts this year. From players to coaches to the fact that fans will finally be able to cheer for the team from the stands of SoFi Stadium, there are a great number of changes this year. That’s exciting in many ways. But also adds a bit of uncertainty.

You see, NFL teams are loaded with any number of variables that seldom are discussed. Two of the key elements of success for an NFL team are the players’ familiarity and continuity with one another and with the coaches’ game planning. For any plan to work, the players must know their role, understand their teammates’ roles, and trust the system to work. That allows players on the backside of a play to stay home and defend against a reverse. It gives offensive linemen the certainty to focus on their man and trust that other defenders will be blocked by other offensive linemen.

Just on first blush, the LA Rams will start a new quarterback, a new offensive center, a new defensive signal-caller, a new deep threat wide receiver, two new secondary starters, and a new second tight end starter. While you may think that they are all NFL players, many as veterans, who should be able to handle playing in the Rams offense, it will require synching up the quarterback to all of the receivers, the offensive line to work out blocking assignments, pass coverages to be relearned and communicated, and the defense to rely upon a new signal-caller.

Will it all just click from the moment the football is snapped in the home opener? It seems unlikely. While there is no reason to expect that everything will go to hell in a handbasket, the team will likely require a few games to work through gaffes, miscues, and miscommunications. If the Rams haven’t solved the majority of those issues quickly enough, and are still trying to find the range on deep passes in October, or are still working on finding the right defensive plays, the Rams could falter out of the gates and struggle to overcome a poor start over the rest of the 17 game season.

Defense regresses too much

The LA Rams would get incredibly hard-pressed to repeat as the number-one ranked defense in the NFL even if defensive coordinator Brandon Staley had returned. His exodus has made repeating even more difficult. It’s not that the LA Rams are suddenly devoid of playmakers. It’s simply that the history of the NFL has not had a top-ranked defense repeat that performance on the following year for a very long time.

Even as the Green Bay Packers defeated the LA Rams with a strong offensive showing, there was a larger story than simply the injury to Aaron Donald. The Packers succeeded by remaining patient against a Rams defense designed to stop big plays. Instead, the Packers dinked and dunked a constant stream of running plays mixed with short and intermediate route pass plays.

Word of that success against the Rams’ top-ranked defense travels fast. All three NFC West teams no doubt studied the Packers’ offense over and over and over this offseason, and added a number of formations and plays that frustrated the Rams. The team can expect a steady diet of Packer plays until the defense demonstrates the ability to force 3-and-outs.

New defensive coordinator Raheem Morris inherits the same elite defensive players that Brandon Staley was given: Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Staley amplified both All-Pro defenders’ abilities to impact the game by unleashing them from a traditional defensive role. Donald was able to pick his spot along the line of scrimmage, while Ramsey was able to pick his receiver in pass coverage. Will Morris replicate that, or will the Rams resume the script of a more traditional defense? The Rams will likely backslide somewhat on defense this year. But if the Rams defense falls out of the top-five ranking, the team’s hopes to appear in Super Bowl LVI could derail.

Injury bug

The LA Rams have invested both picks and salary to obtain and retain some of the most elite talented players in the NFL. While that has created a lot of excitement for the fans when the team adds a new game-changer to the roster, it also brings with it vulnerability as well. You may have noticed that the Rams defense was not nearly as stout against the Green Bay Packers offense as expected. Of course, Aaron Donald played injured in that game and the results were less than spectacular.

While a lot of chatter has been made about the San Francisco injuries in 2020, analysts failed to acknowledge that the Rams downturn in 2019 was due in large part to a wave of injuries that affected the offensive line, the defensive secondary, and migrated all across the Rams roster. Even as the Rams front office acted with speed and precision to compensate, the team was simply overcome with too many injuries that happened too quickly.

Even the 2020 season, much like that of 2018, was tarnished by untimely injuries to critical players. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp seems to be injured whenever the Rams play in the post-season. Veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth missed half of the NFL season and returned to play at partial strength for the playoffs. Injuries to running backs, linebackers, and defensive backs forced the Rams to rotate players less rapidly or promote depth players into a starting role. Which each promotion, the overall performance of the Rams declines slightly.

Winning it all requires the Rams to remain healthy for the duration of the season. That will be even more difficult in a 17-game season. Still, the Rams have elite players who are counted on to lift the play of everyone. That includes Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Andrew Whitworth, Leonard Floyd, Matthew Stafford, and more. Can they all stay healthy throughout a 17-game season, plus playoff games? To win the Super Bowl, they need to do exactly that.