good stuff

Quote
RockRam
I think that a person that has watched a lot of football over many years has about as good a chance of calling it right on which college QBs will make it in the Pros as the hired guy who crunches data and measures everything. It is just a very hard position to evaluate and project to the Pro level. As one of the ex-GMs I was listening to on the Sirius NFL station said, the human factor looms large. It has every bit as much to do with a QBs success as his physical ability. Have they already reached their peak development? Is getting drafted high their real goal (even if they don't consciously realize it), versus being a great Pro? Does the money change them and lessen their desire to work? Did the college system they played in disguise their weaknesses? Are they of poor character and getting let loose from college where they are monitored and watched like hawks suddenly allows them to go off the rails and be who they really are? And more.

All that said, here's what I think of the top guys.

While I think that Lawrence is supremely talented, I don't see a very disciplined guy. He's very much look-at-me. I don't see a leader. Maybe he'll grow into it..... maybe he won't. He by no means is a sure thing. He's another one that his highlight reels are mostly about him taking off and running..... much like for Wentz in college. The problem for him is that he's not the uber fast and slick runner Lamar Jackson. And he's not Russell Wilson who can run because he is plenty fast and is built like a LB. Lawrence is going to be a big target to hit. Not against him at all. Just not sold that his talent will translate well into the NFL over time.

I think he is a leader, issue with me is that he really hasn't faced much adversity. How will he react and how will he handle playing on a poor team. You are right, he isn't outrunning anyone, and he isn't a shifty runner, but I think he understands that. He played like he understood that. That being said, I think he is a nice combination of smarts, arm talent and athleticism. And he along with Mac Jones are the most NFL ready.

Another supremely talented guy is Wilson. He's got it all. But..... he just hasn't started that many college games nor against top competition. Big....red... flag. Not saying he won't transition. But that he's going to the Jets means he's being set up for failure. He won't be given the chance he needs to develop for ideally about 2 years. He'll be thrown to the wolves on a bad team in a terrible media world with impatient fans and a team that goes through head coaches like a shopping cart through the Supermarket aisles.

Yeah, my red flag is the same as yours. The year prior to this one, he was not good (62% comp. with 11 tds 9 ints...). So did he just all of a sudden figure it out? Or did he beat up poor competition. I see why people like him. The ball explodes off his hand and he makes off schedule plays alot like Mahomes.

Justin Fields. No use talking about him in my book. He's off my personal board because of his epilepsy. Feel sorry for him. He's a good player; but again running is such a big part of his game. No way I draft a guy with that big of a built-in medical risk who is almost certain to get a concussion or two as well.

I'm not too worried about it, and if it was a concern why wasn't it a widely known issue? That said, he is tough, he showed that in the playoffs. Prototypical size and good arm. He won't fit every system, but in the right one, he could be very good.

Lance. Never saw him play. But when a kid has that few starts at that size and division of school I'm immediately suspicious. What I hope for him is that he goes late in the 1st round to a good team that will give him a couple of years to develop before they even think about turning the reins over to him.

Saw all 19 games start to finish. Helps being 2 hrs from NDSUs campus. Big arm, great size, played in a pro style offense. Is he raw? yup, Did he throw a ton of passes at NDSU? Nope. Does he only have one speed on his passes? yup. Does he have the highest ceiling? Maybe, just maybe. He is still young enough to mold him into what you want him to be, that cannot be said with Wilson, Fields or Jones.

Mac Jones. Probably the most Pro ready. Not a great athlete. Really good from the neck up. Good enough arm. Good enough pocket mobility. Played around great talent. He's not a guy that can carry a team, but he can lead a really good one. Good leader. When the Niner's draft him he'll be going to an ideal situation, especially if they hang on to Jimmy G one more season in order to give Jones time to come up to speed.

Not much to add to that assessment. Spot on. He really manipulates the pocket well, climbs the pocket well. His arm is alright. Understands what the defense is giving him and takes it. So basically everything you said. I will add that his floor is probably higher than Wilson, Trask, Lance and Fields, but his ceiling is probably lower than all those except for Trask.

Kyle Trask. Second most Pro ready. The only reason he's not more Pro ready (like Jones) is because he didn't play in as many games as Jones. Really good from the neck up. Accurate. Good enough arm. Seems to decipher what the D is doing. So-so pocket mobility but seems to feel the rush (in a good way). Another guy that can't carry a team, but put him on a good team and he'll be good. Good leader. He's always the afterthought QB, and so he will never stop trying to get better, and will be the humble good guy that is going to make some franchise really glad they drafted him. He will be content to sit and wait his turn..... because he's always had to.

Again, this is good stuff. I do think Lawrence and Jones are more pro ready. Trask isn't too far behind. He is a statue in the pocket and I'm not sure his arm is "good enough" It probably is. There is something I just don't like about a guy that never starts in Hs and was basically a backup in college until an injury to Franks. I hope he proves me wrong, he seems like a winner and hard worker and nice enough kid.

Again, this is arm chair stuff only. It's a fan's view. That said, if I was to speculate on what things look like 4 or 5 years from now, I'd bet on Jones and Trask as doing the best. Lawrence so-so. Wilson is the one that intrigues me and could be superior or go the other way. Lance I think might have a decent ceiling but also a pretty low floor just looking at his college career. But he will also take the longest to develop.

I worry Jones as a high end game manager drafted 3rd overall will not meet expectations. Real or made up. Fields scares me, but not due to the medical stuff. Trask doesn't scare me at all because I have no expectations of a pocket passer in a world of more mobile QBs. Wilson and Lance are very interesting.

Getting drafted into the right situation is always critical. Lawrence and Wilson are going to get drafted into poor situations. Jones excellent situation. And likely so will Trask because he'll probably be a second day pick and so won't be seen as an immediate solution, and has a reasonable chance to go to a team that has an older QB that they are looking to replace in a couple of years.

Again, right on target.

Frankly, if in the off chance Trask was there at 57 for the Rams, they shouldn't waste any time. They should take him. I think he's got a chance to be a Warner-like Pro.