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dzrams
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Suh-weet!
Teams are scoring 24 pts/game on average now, up a couple points from last year.
But really? 42 points with no "give backs" is what it'd take for you to be satisfied? KC and NO have each given the ball away 8 times, the Pats 13 times. I have no idea how many of those led directly to scores. And they miss field goals, etc. The Broncos in 2013 scored 39/game, most ever, and had some number of "give backs" that led to points. They also had a D and special teams that scored points for them too.
If the most prolific offense in NFL history can't come within a touchdown (at least, I'm guessing) of your standard for satisfaction (allowing for adjustments in re "give aways," etc.), it just may be too high. KC is even further away from that standard.
And, happily, I think you're wrong. Whether it's the Rams or some other team, I'll guess that whoever wins the Super Bowl this year will NOT have needed to score 40+ in every playoff game.
Finally, the Rams didn't invest crazy dollars in their defense so they could *hold* the Chiefs/Saints/Pats/whoever to under 40 pts. I'm very hopeful that our D can do much better than that!
I'm not saying they need to AVERAGE 40+ over a season. I'm saying if they want to beat these teams that are averaging 35+ now, they will need to score 40+. IOW, I'm only concerned about what we're doing against the elite teams.
We don't need to play perfectly every week and certainly not against subpar teams. But more is required against the best and more will be necessary in the playoffs.
Nor did I say they need 40+ in every playoff game. But they will likely need 40+ in the playoffs against NO, KC, and NE. Stated another way, I doubt that whoever wins the SB will do so without having to score more than 35 in at least one, and possibly, multiple games.
And BTW, scoring is not up just a little. League wide, scoring is up 11%. However, among the top 10 offenses, scoring is up approx. 15%. That's a substantial increase.
The Rams scoring is up roughly 15 and is exactly on par with that trend. But the top two teams are way above the trend. KC is up 40%, NO is up 25%. NE is scoring more but they're not keeping up with the trend. Carolina interestingly enough is #11 both years but they are up 20% this year.
Anyway, I'm looking at the top teams because that's who we'll be playing in the playoffs. I'm not worried about keeping pace with bad teams.
...And when the top teams are averaging 36, yeah, I think we may need a couple of 42s to get us over the top.
I know we paid a ton of money for our defense and I have hope too but judging by the way things look, defenses as a whole are not slowing the top scoring teams down.
I stand by my position: 35 points and giving some back will not be enough this year to win. But we shall see...
... I don't think we're arguing about much.
For one, in saying scoring was up a couple points I wasn't trivializing the increase. To be more specific, scoring has
increased from 21.7 to 24.1 ppg = 2.4/24.1 = 10%. Your numbers or mine probably doesn't account for the most recent games, but clearly there's no real disagreement on the fact of a significant increase overall. And I take your word for it in re the top teams/offenses.
And this - "...And when the top teams are averaging 36, yeah, I think we may need a couple of 42s to get us over the top." Of course we may. No argument there. AND KC has also been held to 30 or less 3x; the Rams, 2x; the Saints, 3x; the Pats, 3x (and to 31 or less 5x). Not only can it be done, it's been done roughly 35% of the time. Those three teams have been *held* under 40 18x.
I expect KC to put up a lot of points in two weeks because the Rams D is a mess. But if these two teams meet in the Bowl, or if the Rams meet the Saints before that, I do NOT expect the Rams to have to break 40 to win the matchup. Shored up by Talib's return, w/Fowler fully on board, Peters improved or benched, etc., and Wade & co. having figured stuff out, I'll expect the D to do what 1/3rd of the defenses have done when facing that trio - hold them to 30 or less.
We'll see!
