Folks, I'll say this once more and then I'll shut up … well, at least until next year when the schedule comes out and people start marking Ws and Ls.
Projecting future games on the basis of short term, recent results is really foolish.
Last week, I mentioned in passing that GB could lose to SF. People on this board said SF had no chance. Now, people are saying SF will be really hard to beat next Sunday and GB is a much lesser threat.
Now, SF did lose. And I am not claiming to be Nostradamus. I'm just noting the stark difference between people's perceptions of both teams before and after 1 game.
A couple of weeks ago, a near consensus was emerging on this board that we were marching toward rings. Now, after 2 tight games, there are people concluding ruefully that we don't have what it takes this year.
Please understand: I am NOT predicting rings or failure to win rings. I am not predicting anything.
I am simply suggesting that the 2-3 most recent games cannot form the basis for sound analysis of future results. Anyone predicting gloom because we didn't dominate the last 2 is being pretty silly. And anyone who blithely assumes that because we won 2 tough ones we can't be beat is equally silly.
Now, a concession. Some of the analyses that predicted that we would come up short were based on longer term analysis. It is perfectly correct to look at a significant sample size and make some projections. The lack of an edge rush is an ongoing problem, for example. But then, the persistence of an incredible running attack is an ongoing strength. In every game, teams' strengths and weaknesses collide in complex ways. And the fact is that a trend of winning tough games is as much of a trend as is our underperforming defense.
So what do I know? Not bloody much. But what does any of us know? Not much more.
And we don't learn that much from the 1-2 most recent games. We can gauge a team's development and competitiveness, but so many variables complicate the question of later games. I GUARANTEE you that teams we face and we ourselves will rise and fall going forward: developing in some areas, regressing in others. Gaining and losing roster health. Getting hot and going off the boil.
Teams that look tough today will collapse. And teams that seem beatable will bloody our noses. As D'Marco Farr said in a podcast, don't bet on the NFL. Prior performance is a guarantee of neither positive or negative performance.
OK. Rant over. Please return to your regularly scheduled projections from last Sunday to this one.
