Percentage of late 1st round picks that play at high level

What is the Percentage of late 1st round picks that play at high level

When I mean a high level, I mean a border line pro bowl player.

Let's say maybe 25% of the time a late first round pick is really good.

4 years in a row you trade your 1st round pick for a border line or above pro bowler that is underpaid and near the end of the contract.

1) Worst case scenario, you lose all 4 players, but you get a proven player playing at a high level at a discounted salary. Each year you fail to resign the player, you get a high compensatory pick, maybe as high as a 3rd rounder, but your percentage of getting top play from a proven top NFL player goes up very much and you get that for a good price.

2) Let's say you sign 1 or 2 of the guys on their second contract. By trading for the player, you most likely improved your position on the resigning and can go get the types of players you need in targeted areas instead of praying players fall to you in the draft.

3) You could use your franchise tag as well on some of the players if you feel that player is a key part.


If you keep the draft pick, history says maybe 1 out of 4 will live up to the 1st round billing and sometimes it takes a couple of years for that to happen. In many cases the team that drafts the player is developing that player for the 2nd contract with another team.

For these reasons, I feel that the sure thing is a much better percentage play. You can always dump a bunch of players for 1 season and be bad for 1 season to get under salary cap and start right back up. The way it is set up, there isn't enough salary cap money for all the teams to retain players for extended periods of time, so you can always restock after 1 year of tanking as there will be many players available the following year.

Now, would I do that 4 years in a row. Most likely not. Of course, maybe I would use the 1st round pick if the right trade is not there, but I feel strongly that draft picks are way over valued because of uncertainty and bad drafting isn't exclusive to the Rams. It is not a science and difficult to do as so many factors out of anybody control.

Health, Smarts, Personal Life (Party too Much), These are variables that are impossible to evaluate.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/11/2018 02:43PM by Rams_81.