Rams are taking Win-Now Experiment to Its Limit: Ringer

The Rams Are Taking a Win-Now Experiment to Its Limit

And a closer look at the team’s cap situation reveals it may not be jeopardizing its long-term strategy to do so

By Danny Kelly Apr 4, 2018

Me, when the Rams traded for Patriots receiver Brandin Cooks, the latest in a string of big-name acquisitions by the team: Man, the Rams are going to be so good and fun and exciting next year.

Also me, a few seconds later: This might be a complete disaster.

If it wasn’t already abundantly clear, the Rams are going all in this season to win the Super Bowl. GM Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay have pushed all their chips forward, employing a ramped-up, über-audacious form of the roster-building strategy we’ve seen a few teams have success with over the past few years—spending aggressively to maximize the small championship window a good quarterback on a cheap rookie contract can create.

The Seahawks did it in 2013, when Russell Wilson’s $500,000 salary gave the team the chance to sign Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, two keys to their eventual Super Bowl run.

And the Eagles did it last year, utilizing the surplus in cap space Carson Wentz’s rookie deal created to ink receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, running back LeGarrette Blount, nickel corner Patrick Robinson, and pass rusher Chris Long and, later, to trade for defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan and running back Jay Ajayi.

Oh, and it wouldn’t have been feasible to pay $7 million-plus in guaranteed money to Nick Foles, who became the Super Bowl MVP, had Wentz been making, say, $23 million-plus.

Jared Goff is set to count just $7.6 million against the cap next season, chump change compared to L.A.’s divisional rival signal-callers—Russell Wilson will count $23.7 million against the Seahawks’ cap, and the newly-extended Jimmy Garoppolo will eat up an astounding $37 million of San Francisco’s cap.

Goff’s contract represents a huge advantage over other potential contenders, too, with Matt Stafford ($26.5 million), Kirk Cousins ($25 million), Drew Brees ($24 million), Ben Roethlisberger ($23.2 million), Tom Brady ($22 million), Philip Rivers ($22 million), Matt Ryan ($21.6 million), Cam Newton ($21.5 million), and Aaron Rodgers ($20.5 million) all set to cost roughly triple Goff’s hit.

That discount at the quarterback position is a big reason the Rams came into the offseason with over $45 million in cap space (10th most in the league), giving them the flexibility to use the franchise tag on safety Lamarcus Joyner at $11.2 million, take on Aqib Talib’s $11 million contract, go out and sign Ndamukong Suh to a one-year, $14 million deal, and acquire Cooks’s $8.5 million deal in 2018.

That infusion of top-tier talent makes a Rams team that won 11 games and the NFC West last year look like one of the clear favorites in the conference in 2018. But L.A.’s hardly the first team to load up on big names—we all remember the 2011 Eagles “Dream Team” that, well, failed to live up to expectations—so let’s just get this out of the way and list all the reasons

L.A.’s experiment could go horribly awry; or why it’s time, Rams fans, in the immortal words of Samuel L. Jackson, to hold on to your butts.

First off, just about every one of the Rams’ new additions carries some risk. Newly acquired cornerback Marcus Peters was kicked off his college team in 2014 after multiple run-ins with the Husky coaching staff, and the Chiefs’ decision to move on from the young, elite player after only two years certainly doesn’t ease any maturity concerns.

The mercurial playmaker had a series of blowups last year in Kansas City, bickering with fans, with coaches, and with referees, eventually earning a one-game suspension from Andy Reid after he threw a penalty flag into the stands.

Opposite him, Talib has been the source of a few distractions throughout his career, too. He drew a disciplinary warning from the league after shooting himself in the leg prior to the 2016 season, and was ejected from a Broncos-Raiders matchup last November when he ripped Michael Crabtree’s chain off his neck … for a second time.

Meanwhile, Suh’s earned a reputation for dirty hits after the whistle—and will be playing at the nose tackle spot, a different role than he’s used to. Plus, unless the team signs Aaron Donald to a long-term extension before the season starts, Suh’s eight-figure salary could create some friction with the defending defensive player of the year (though Donald was reportedly in favor of the signing).

Donald unsuccessfully held out to try to get a new contract last fall, after all, and is still looking for a big-money deal and the security that provides.

As for Cooks, his elite production and talent are both undeniable, but if he ends up playing the Sammy Watkins role in the Rams offense—i.e., a field-stretching threat that was often utilized as a decoy to clear space underneath for Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp—the potential for discord is there.

The Saints dealt the former first-rounder to the Patriots last March after he became disgruntled with his role in the offense; one report stated that “Cooks [had] felt a growing frustration with his usage—mostly the idea that he is used too often as a clear-out receiver instead of as a primary option.

”Gulp. Add in a completely-expectable step down at the quarterback position going from two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Drew Brees and Tom Brady to Goff, and there’s always the chance that Cooks will be unhappy with his target share and/or role and cause issues internally.

All these factors are compounded by the fact the Rams are a prime regression candidate in what’s looking like an increasingly stacked NFC field. L.A. was incredibly lucky with injuries last year, finishing with fewer adjusted games lost than any other team in the past seven seasons, per Football Outsiders.

That isn’t likely to continue. And even with Cooks onboard, it wouldn’t be surprising if they struggle to maintain the offensive efficiency they showed last year.

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The Rams had the highest scoring rate per drive spike of the last decade. Nearly all of the other top-10 teams in that bucket all naturally declined a touch the following year. They can be very good and still step back in overall output.

But the upside of all these moves is that the major boost in overall talent gives the Rams the chance to take that regression to the mean and toss it on its head. They’ve put together what could be the best secondary in the league.

They’ve built what might be the most dominant duo of defensive tackles ever by pairing Suh with Donald. And by adding Cooks, a premier field-stretching deep threat, they’ve given last year’s top scoring offense the potential to get even better. There’s risk, sure, but the sky’s the limit for how good the Rams can be in 2018.

Long term, the loss of draft picks could create roster-depth issues a few years down the line—and the Rams’ first pick in this year’s draft is a third-rounder, no. 87 overall. But the concerns over the team’s upcoming deluge of big paydays is overwrought.

Joyner, Cooks, Donald, Suh, Peters, Talib, Goff, and Todd Gurley will all be due for new contracts over the next two years, but with a projected $80 million and change of cap space for the 2019 season, the Rams have an incredible amount of flexibility to decide whom to keep (or let leave) after this season.

L.A. has very few big-money commitments going out past next year, with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and defensive tackle Michael Brockers the only two players due to count north of $10 million against the cap in 2019. Plus, Goff’s the only player with more than $2 million in dead money—meaning the team can cut just about anyone it wants if it needs to shuffle the books around significantly.

That means the Rams can extend Donald, Cooks (which is reportedly the plan), and a few other key members of the nucleus—and still have plenty of room to spare for Goff and Gurley down the line.

Most importantly, though, is that outside of New England, so-called Super Bowl windows are short-lived. In a league that’s constructed to push teams back to 8-8 through the salary cap, schedule format, and draft order, it’s incredibly difficult for any club to get all its stars aligned in the form of a good quarterback, talented offensive stars, and a top-tier defense.

That’s what makes that four- or five-year period when a team has a quarterback on a rookie contract such a crucial time to act. Once that window’s gone, man, it’s not coming back anytime soon.

At the end of the day, I love what the Rams are doing. There’s no resting on laurels. There’s no feeling that what the team did last year was good enough.

Instead of the long-established draft-and-develop strategy for championship team-building, the Rams have thrown caution to the wind and brought in a bevy of outside talent, with the hopes that McVay and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips can manage the influx of big personalities.

They’re paying a premium up front for proven talent and production—skipping past the learning curve the draft-and-development tack brings—and giving themselves what they think is their best shot at a Lombardi Trophy before Goff gets paid the big bucks and the entire cap dynamic gets turned upside down.

For all the reasons listed above, things could end up going haywire in a hurry. But looking back on this in a few years, if all these bold offseason moves don’t end up helping L.A. win a Super Bowl, at least Rams fans will know Goff’s prime championship years weren’t wasted for a lack of trying, for a lack of creativity, or for a lack of daring.
[www.theringer.com]



THIS BOARD HAS BASICALLY COVERED THE DEPTHS OF THIS ARTICLE, In almost every way shape and form. Still a good read....