Since 2003, 14 QBs have been drafted 1st or 2nd overall. Here they are:
Mitch Trubisky
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford
Matthew Stafford
JaMarcus Russell
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
Outside of Russell who was a clear bust from the get go, and RG3 who flamed out after a spectacular rookie year, most of these guys are starting quality QBs or better. The one additional debate is over Bradford who biggest issue has been health and playing on a dumpster fire team which may have been a big reason for his problems. Trubisksy we don't know yet, but I wouldn't bet against him, so he's an incomplete right now, so don't count him in the hit rate.
Anyway, thats a pretty good hit rate for QBs where the common belief is that its a crap shoot. 10 QBs out of 13, or 77% even counting Bradford as a miss.
The hit rate drops off drastically after that. Just consider the QBs picked from 5 to 25 in the same time period from 2003 to 2017. There are 23 of them. Here they are:
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Johnny Manziel
EJ Manuel
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Joe Flacco
Brady Quinn
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
I see maybe 6 hits out of 23, thats 26%. A big drop off, even though there are guys like Rodgers and Ben in that group.
This tells me two things. Teams are pretty good knowing who the best QBs are, and they spare no draft capital in getting them.
~ max ~
“The consciousness of good intentions disdains ambiguity.” - Alexander Hamilton
