QBs are strange birds; first couple of years aren't indicative of longer term

I am not going to present numbers, but rather just thinking about QBs, it is interesting how some guys can start out slow in their careers and then keep growing into good QBs. And then others start out hot and either regress......permanently....or never get any better than in their rookie or 2nd years.

The Mannings had pretty bad rookie years, but kept developing into very good to great.
Aaron Rogers the same.

RG3 was as hot as it gets as a rookie and then never could progress.

Bradford was pretty darn good out of the box, but I'm not sure you could say he is very much better today than when he was as a rookie.
Yes, I'm aware that injury plays a key role. But so does that player's supporting cast, the coaches who are developing him, the stability of the system he's in, and not just a little bit of luck.

Dak Prescott is a good present example. All world as a rookie. Coming back down to earth as a 2nd year guy. Sure, there are extenuating circumstances, including missing his All-Pro LT and his All-Pro RB. But, teams also have a lot of video on him now, D's know better how to defeat him, and everything went about as perfect as you could get for him last year.

Goff is another interesting example. By his stats, a complete bust as a rookie who had many wondering if he would even make it as a journeyman back-up. But he was on a terrible team, with a terrible Oline, few good skill players, lousy coaching, not even sure you could call the offense "a system", etc. This year a much better team around him, good Oline, good skill players, good coaching and development, so the result is a high QB rating, excellent TD to INT ratio, etc. But.....he's still only a year and a half into his career. What'll he be next year and the year after? Is he really the guy of year 2, or more the guy of year 1? Or might he even be better than year 2?

Wentz looks like a league MVP in this his 2nd year. But, he went to an excellent team with a good supporting cast and excellent coaching and a system designed to fit his skills. Everything has gone his way for the first season and a half. What will he be longer term? Donavan McNabb or Russell Wilson? Hard to tell, yet.

My bet is that when Deshauwn Watson comes back he won't have near the stellar games he had this year before injury. Partly because teams will have had an entire off season to scheme against him, and partly because he's not going to be so fearless in his running and scrambling anymore, and partly because everything that could go RIGHT for him, did....up until his unfortunate non-contact injury in practice. I don't mean to say he won't be a real good QB. But he looked HOF ready in his first 3 or 4 games.....and that is unrealistic longer term.

But here is what I do see over the years. With rare exception (Wilson for example), a QB who relies much upon his legs to make plays has up and down years and never quite develops into that passer that every team covets. It is the drop back guys who stay in the pocket who tend to keep developing and become better and better passers and Superbowl players as the years roll by. The Mannings, Brady, Warner, Palmer. I put Aaron Rogers in that category because although he is highly mobile, it is mostly dancing in the pocket rather than rushing the ball, or running a RPO in which he is true threat to keep the ball, or making most pass plays roll outs or moving pocket.

What's the test? To me it's the highlight reel. Are the QBs highlight reels mostly about great running, or mostly about great passing?
No matter. I don't think you can classify a QB as to elite, or journeyman, or back-up, or whatever until 3 full years have passed. Maybe even a tad more.

No better example than Luck. Sure, injury has hampered him. But even he says that he's not the same guy if he's not using his legs. He isn't usually thought of as a running QB, but he really is. But as good a passer as he is, he still needs a good supporting cast to succeed.

And in the end, that's what every QB needs. Without stability and a good supporting cast, a very good QB looks awfully ordinary.

As for Jared Goff and the Rams; his college career showed substantial development and production increase each year. So far in his very brief NFL career we see the same thing; his second year is a head and shoulders above his 1st year. And what you see is a guy who game by game develops his passing skills, ability to read D's, and plays faster and faster with more confidence. While no one knows if this development will continue or plateau, it is the upward trend that gives me the most hope. And the fact that he is a pure pocket passer who wants to do anything but run with the ball.

But, for me, 2018 is going to be a much bigger year for Goff than 2017. He will have had a full year as the starter, a full year in the system, and a full year of true development with a definite purpose and direction. And, I have faith that his supporting cast will even be another step better next year. So 2018 is going to say a lot about what Goff is and will become.