I suspect that many will not quite understand your post. I do question the Bayesian inference theory as it applies to law and economic analysis. Too many times we look at the probabilities and determine a course of action notwithstanding whether its simply the "right" thing to do even at the cost of economic loss. I.e. That's precisely what got Ford into trouble on the Pinto cases. Their data showed that based on the "few" times the gas tank would explode upon collision it was economically unwise to recall all those cars since they could buy off (settle) the "few" wrongful death cases.
However, from a football analysis it does provide a baseline upon which evolving data can move the line up or down.
