The NFL and NBA draft are HUGE rolls of the dice because the college game and pro game are so vastly different.
Baseball doesn't pit one guy against another with stuff going on all over, its the pitcher and the batter for the most part, and there is NO "double teaming". And they face off on a static field with few moving parts.
Football and basketball players are in constant motion with things happening all over the field/court and in their peripheral vision..........and when they come out of college and go to the pros they are suddenly playing against grown men with experience, skills and strength/speed they did not encounter at any point prior.
So you never know how they will grow over the next couple of years and get bigger or stronger, and you never know if they will do well or poorly.
The draft at the top end is the biggest risk in the business for a GM.
It's a roll of the dice.
There is more skill in finding role players and "pretty good players" because the high end athletic talent in college football and hoops has way more risk than role players, 6th man guys, and all the rest. Uncovering the mid round solid players in the NFL or second round (there are only two rounds in the NBA for those who do not know) is a real skill. The rest is speculation.
