Re: FootballOutsiders way too early projection: Rams 7th in NFC

Things change rapidly in the NFL. A team that was bad one season is sometimes much better the next season or vice versa. But dramatic year-to-year changes actually happen less often now than they used to. From 1999 to 2008, a dozen different teams turned things around and went 11-5 or better after a season in which they were 5-11 or worse. Since 2009, only three teams have done the same thing.

The decline of parity is reflected in this first round of Football Outsiders' 2017 team projections. Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that made the playoffs in one of the past two seasons. Nevertheless, there will be some new blood in contention, and in particular, a new city. Both the Los Angeles Rams and the Los Angeles Chargers rank seventh in their respective conferences in this initial forecast, meaning there's a good chance one of the two teams will give Los Angeles playoff football for the first time since 1993.

Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings for the past three seasons, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. (You'll find last year's final ratings here.) Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball.

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Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Dallas is No. 1) to the easiest (New England).

When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2017. Numbers will change over the next few months because of personnel moves, including the NFL draft. We also might work on improvements to our forecast system, and that would alter our 2017 projections.

Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. There's a lot of randomness in the NFL: Player development is difficult to predict; injuries have a huge impact; and even the better team on an individual day might not win because of the arbitrary bounce of a fumble or a tipped pass. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 11-5. Taking the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8, with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses.

We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published below don't mean that we expect the 2017 season to end with no team below 5-11.

Here are the results:


AFC East

1. New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.2 mean wins; strength of schedule: 32)
2. Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 23)
3. Miami Dolphins: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 18)
4. New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 25)

If you're sick of seeing the Patriots at the top of the AFC year after year, I have some bad news for you: New England has a top-five projection in all three phases of the game. On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. We're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents, including Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500, although this initial Dolphins projection seems a bit over-pessimistic. The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. On the other hand, the offensive projection is driven by the quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill has finished 24th and 27th in QBR over the past two seasons.



AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 13-3 (13.1 mean wins; SOS: 27)
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins; SOS: 26)
3. Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 19)
4. Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.4 mean wins; SOS: 11)

Pittsburgh and New England come out far ahead of the rest of the league in our forecast, with the Steelers powered by the best offensive projection in the league. The Steelers have exceptional offensive line continuity, as all five starting linemen have been in Pittsburgh for at least four seasons. Pittsburgh might have the best running back and the best wide receiver in the league, and we can expect some rebound from Ben Roethlisberger after an inconsistent 2016 season. We also expect Cincinnati to bounce back on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals get eight home games again after losing one to London in 2016.


Le'Veon Bell, left, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are still in Pittsburgh, which means the Steelers should be good yet again on offense. Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
Baltimore has brought in talent on defense in free agency, but the Ravens have lost a lot, as well, with the trade of Timmy Jernigan and the surprising retirement of Zachary Orr. Cleveland continues to rebuild, but at least the defense should be better with a full season from Jamie Collins and the return of Desmond Bryant and Nate Orchard from injury.


AFC South

1. Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 29)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 30)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 28)
4. Houston Texans: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 10)

This will continue to be the worst division in the NFL, but at least Tennessee and Jacksonville seem like teams on the rise. The Titans ranked 15th in our DVOA ratings last season, best in the AFC South, and they've made some strong free-agent additions on defense. So has Jacksonville, and the Jaguars project to have a top-10 defense, but there's no reason to expect the offense to get any better.

Houston might have won the division last season, but the Texans ranked a dismal 29th in our DVOA ratings. That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. The quarterback position is a colossal question mark, which is enough to outweigh a defensive projection that gives the Texans a boost with the return of J.J. Watt. Meanwhile, the Colts continue to experiment with just how much a bad defense can fritter away the prime years of a good quarterback.


AFC West

1. Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 15)
2. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 4)
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.9 mean wins; SOS: 14)
4. Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 6)

We launched Football Outsiders back in 2003. Some things haven't changed: In our first season forecast, no team in the AFC South came out with a winning record. That holds true in our 2017 projection. And for the first time since 2003, our 2017 projections also give the Raiders a better than 50-50 shot at a winning record. They should have a top-10 offense again, and a full year with Mario Edwards Jr. across from Khalil Mack should improve the pass rush.


Khalil Mack won the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year award last season. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Kansas City essentially projects as the same team as last season but with a much tougher schedule and less good fortune. The Chiefs were 6-2 in regular-season games decided by less than a touchdown, and they led the NFL by ending 16.7 percent of opposing drives with a takeaway. The Chargers, of course, were the opposite in terms of luck, and they hope a new coaching staff will help prevent so many close losses and blown fourth-quarter leads.

Our Denver projection might be a surprise, but a full turnover of the coaching staff often presages a drop for winning teams. The Broncos already defied historical NFL trends by putting up a second straight season of otherworldly pass defense, and the odds they can do it three straight seasons are even longer. Then again, I wouldn't want to bet against them, in part because it might make Chris Harris Jr. angry on Twitter.


Full AFC standings

Here's what the 2017 AFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections.

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. Oakland
4. Cincinnati*
5. Tennessee
6. Kansas City*
7. Los Angeles Chargers
8. Baltimore
9. Jacksonville
10. Buffalo
11. Indianapolis
12. Miami
13. New York Jets
14. Houston
15. Denver
16. Cleveland

* Wild-card teams


NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1)
2. New York Giants: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 7)
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 5)
4. Washington Redskins: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 2)

This is the strongest division in the NFL, where last season all four teams finished in the DVOA top 10, but an arduous schedule might leave three of the four teams out of the postseason. The problem isn't just these teams beating up on each other for six games. The NFC East also draws the two West divisions, which means facing many of the league's top defenses.


Brandon Marshall is the big-bodied receiver the Giants missed last season, especially in the red zone. AP Photo/Kathy Willens
We end up with Dallas repeating as the most likely scenario, although our projections might underrate the importance of its defensive losses, because there could be a compound effect from losing so many players at the same position (defensive back). The Eagles were better than their record in 2016, but our system expects regression to the mean from their defense. The same goes for the Giants' defense; but their offense should improve with the addition of Brandon Marshall. Washington will have to weather the loss of two starting receivers and an offensive coordinator, but the Redskins are still more likely to be an average team than a bad one.


NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12)
2. Detroit Lions: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 9)
3. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13)
4. Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins; SOS: 8)

When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad; great team if the defense is good. Our projections lean a bit more toward the former than the latter, but the Packers are still well ahead of the rest of their division. Close wins put the Lions into the playoffs last season, despite ranking just 27th in DVOA. With normal luck and without so many late comebacks, the 2017 Lions are probably going to have fewer wins, despite improvement on last season's last-place defense.

The Bears will have a better defense and get closer to .500, thanks to defensive back additions in free agency and returning injured players, including Kyle Fuller and Lamarr Houston. Minnesota's projection is a bit of a surprise, until you realize just how poor the Vikings were in the second half of last season: 24th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA from Week 10 onward.


NFC South

1. Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 31)
2. Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins; SOS: 17)
3. New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 22)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 16)

Carolina's projection is pretty simple: a bit of rebound on both sides of the ball, combined with an easy schedule. (It also helps to play San Francisco instead of one of the other three NFC West teams.) We're forecasting a lot of offensive regression from Atlanta, which went from 23rd in offensive DVOA in 2015 to first in 2016 and now has to adapt to a new offensive coordinator. There are good signs for Atlanta's late-season defensive improvement to continue in 2017 but not enough to counter the likely offensive decline.


Cam Newton and the Panthers are prime bounce-back candidates next season. Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images
New Orleans got rid of its best wide receiver in Brandin Cooks. And it once again projects to have the worst defense in the league. There's a lot of young, developing talent for Tampa Bay, so I think there's a better chance of the Buccaneers taking a step forward than an average projection of 7-9 indicates. But it's still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre.


NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11.2 mean wins; SOS: 21)
2. Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 24)
3. Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 20)
4. San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins; SOS: 3)

As a writer who uses stats to analyze a sport that's tough to analyze with stats, I try to follow two rules: run the numbers unadulterated; and don't be a slave to them. So I don't mind saying that our projection system seems far too optimistic about a rebound performance from the 38-year-old Carson Palmer. That being said, last season's Cardinals were not a bad team, just an average one held back in part by a terrible special-teams performance that is unlikely to be repeated.

The Rams have been trying to compete with a defense and special-teams orientation for years now, but hiring Wade Phillips could finally make that recipe work. Every team that has ever hired Phillips as a head coach or defensive coordinator saw its defensive DVOA improve, including the Broncos, who went from fourth in the league in 2014 to one of the greatest defenses ever in 2015. Phillips' scheme will likely have a similar effect in Los Angeles, where the defense was already loaded with talent in the front seven. If the offense can be garden-variety bad instead of last year's near-historic impotence, it's enough to make the Rams playoff contenders.

The top and bottom of this division are easier to forecast than the middle. The return of Earl Thomas should help the Seattle defense rebound from its December implosion, and that makes the Seahawks the favorites in the NFC, once again. Like Cleveland, there's a good chance San Francisco will improve over last season but very little chance the 49ers will improve to 8-8 or better.


Full NFC standings

Here's what the 2017 NFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections.

1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. Arizona*
4. Dallas
5. Carolina
6. Atlanta*
7. Los Angeles Rams
8. New York Giants
9. Philadelphia
10. Detroit
11. Washington
12. New Orleans
13. Chicago
14. Tampa Bay
15. Minnesota
16. San Francisco

* Wild-card teams