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Denver won it last year, but its not fair to say that Manning was an average QB or worse. He was an anomaly. He was a coach on the field, actually better than a coach on the field. He was a wily old HOF QB who had just enough left to go with his command of the Super Bowl environment.
I think the Denver team last year is an example of how you can win with a suffocating defense. Manning is a future HOF QB, but he played below average in the SB and for most of the season. Denvers defense won the SB, so who's to say it won't happen again.