Re: ah but the main point is nevertheless also true! -:) ...

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he of the 2 INTs, one returned for a TD:

"We just kept going with our game plan. Sure enough, they still never threw the ball downfield."

Factually, the Rams actually do throw downfield. But that quote shows the mindset other teams have of our offense.

It seems to me they don't believe Keenum can beat them with the downfield game enough to respect it.

And let them keep thinking that.

The stat from PFF I keep quoting says that the Rams are 4th in the league in the number of deep passes.

But...perceptions? That's their perceptions? They should try watching film.

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Oh, I'm sure the other team watches film. That's my point. They know the PFF stat. And after absorbing that info, they still feel that the best way to beat us is to overload the box. IOW, they don't respect the deep game despite the numbers.

Actually, they may respect the deep game but the deep shots you're speaking of are in the 6% range IIRC. IOW, even though that percentage is among the league high, it's not very often those real deep strikes happen. The issue is probably that they don't respect Keenum's intermediate game. Whatever it is they are disrespecting, they don't believe that he can lead a passing game potent enough to defeat them.

That's a problem.

But...the Rams came from behind twice in a row on the road to win, and part of it each time was long throws.

Actually look up the espn splits on Keenum from 2013. He was hitting on 50% of his deep passes that year (he had the receivers for it in Houston). 50% is not very common.

What all this tells you, then, is that the Rams have set things up to take shots, and are very smart about when they do them. Shots don't come often so you design good ones for the team you're playing. That actually is a decent strength of the Rams offense and it is not random. It's not by accident. They don't go "hey let;s throw one here." They gameplan for it, set it up, and dial them up at the right times. And again, that contributed (a lot) to 2 come from behind wins on the road. They're confident in it, they set it up for different players (eg. Kendricks v. Seattle), they use it well.

If that player for the Bills was revealing his team's thinking, then, let's hope future opponents are that neglectful.

Even without hitting a 31+ yarder today the Rams YPA was 8.7---and if that were for the season so far, they would rank 2nd in the league behind Ryan.



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Long throws were NOT a part of the Rams come back in both wins. Depending on how a long throw is classified, they may not have been a part of either come back win.

I just went back and reviewed the games and I'll give a quick summary of each.

Week 3 Against TB

At 2:32 in Q2, the Rams were down 20-10.

Barron intercepted the ball and the Rams started their drive at TB's 22 yard line. They scored in four or five plays mostly on the back of Gurley runs. No long shots here. Rams 17, TB 20

At 4:40 in Q3, the Rams were down 20-17. Aguayo had just missed a FG and the Rams took over at the LA 31 yard line. The longest throws of the drive were a 19 yard completion to Britt and a 12 yard completion to Marquez. Gurley had a 16 yard run down to the TB 1 and two plays later he scored. Rams 24, TB 20

At 11:56 in Q4, Quinn sacked Winston and forced a fumble which Westbrooks returned for a TD. Rams 31, TB 20.

At 4:49 in Q4, the Rams were ahead 31-26 at the TB 43 yard line. Keenum hits Austin at the 22, the defender misses an easy tackle and Austin walks into the end zone. It's listed as a 43 yard reception.

I don't know if the requirement is for the ball to travel 31+ yards in the air or if a catch and run counts. If the ball has to travel in the air, it's not a deep strike since it only traveled 22 yards in the air. This was mostly a score because of the missed tackle by the defender just like the long Quick TD earlier in the game. Both were mostly run after the catch due to missed tackles.

Week 4 Against Arizona

At 5:26 in Q4, the Rams were down 13-10.

Arizona punted to the LA 19 and Austin returned it to the Ari. 34. After tacking on a 15 yard facemask penalty, the Rams started the drive at the Ari. 19. Five players later they scored a TD. The longest play was an 8 yard reception to Gurley. No long throws here...

It's debatable whether long throws were part of the TB come back win. That depends on whether the throw has to travel a certain amount of yards in the air. Long throws were definitely NOT a part of the Arizona come back win.

All that aside, as I mentioned above, I really don't think the problem is the lack of the very deep downfield shots. I think it may be issues with the intermediate game. There is some reason why teams are willing to essentially let Keenum beat them deep.

With the way the offense is not putting up many points, I'd say they are justified in continuing whatever strategy they are currently pursuing. I definitely wouldn't call pursuing that strategy neglectful.
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Okay. You want to finesse details. But that's okay I'll adapt. I said "But...the Rams came from behind twice in a row on the road to win, and part of it each time was long throws." I will revise that to say "and part of the attack and so the WIN each time was using long throws." Put that way they don't have to be in the comeback part of the game. Just a general claim about how the Rams have used big passing plays in their wins. Which is the core truth here.

So let's say that deep and deep medium passes were instrumental to the Rams defeating both Tampa and Arizona, and that, regardless of the inaccurate stupidity of the Bills defender quoted above, long passes are a big part of the Rams offensive approach. They set up and take shots. It;s part of who they are. (Actually it has been for years now regardless of the qb.)

BTW, in passing, after the wake-up call of the SF game, the Rams have averaged 20.5 points a game, which would rank them 19th in the league. That's not great but it's also not the abyss some assume. So I am not sure where this idea comes from that they don't score. They can improve over 19th...but last year they were 29th....so, it's already better than it was.

So, first, looking just at play by plays from those 2 games. This general metric just has to do with big plays passing, which doesn't indicate yards through the air v. yards after the catch. (You can't distinguish that difference with play by plays). I include attempts and PIs, anything of 20 or more yards. I did exclude a short pass to Gurley that got turned into a 34 yarder.

For Tampa, that includes the 44 yarder to Quick for a TD, the 19 yarder to Britt on the later 3rd quarter scoring drive, the 4th quarter pass to Britt that yield a 20 yard PI (1 of the results of such attempts), and the pass that yielded a 43 yarder to Austin and a score. There was also the long attempt to Britt on third down, when they came back after the storm had interrupted the game.

For Arizona, that includes a 65 yard TD to Quick, the 23 yard gain by Kendricks and the 34 yard gain by Britt in the 2nd quarter (on a scoring drive), the challenged non-catch to Austin for more than 40 yards I think, a 4th quarter 31 yard gain to Britt in the 3th quarter, a 4th quarter incomplete deep attempt to Kendricks.

Two more things to add.

First, as frequently mentioned, according to PFF, as of the 4th game, the Rams were 4th in the league in big plays passing of 30 yards or more. In fact at that point 40% of Keenum's yards came from those passes.

Another stat, though it's a completely different metric. According to Stats LLC, the Rams are 8th in the league in big plays passing which they define as 25 yards or more. That was before this game...I don't know what the newest numbers after Sunday will reveal.

Now back to the actual main point:

What all this tells you, then, is that the Rams have set things up to take shots, and are very smart about when they do them. Shots don't come often so you design good ones for the team you're playing. That actually is a decent strength of the Rams offense and it is not random. It's not by accident. They don't go "hey let;s throw one here." They gameplan for it, set it up, and dial them up at the right times. And again, that contributed (a lot) to 2 come from behind wins on the road. They're confident in it, they set it up for different players (eg. Kendricks v. Seattle), they use it well.

And THAT is just simply TRUE. It just is. You can tell that much just by watching them. ALSO, besides that, the play by play details show that big plays generally, whether thrown long in the air, are a central part of how the Rams gain advantages. The Stats LLC metric shows that...the Rams are better at getting big plays passing than 24 other teams in the league.

Since you brought it up, in terms of the intermediate game, the Rams are actually doing that more this year than last year. Those passes are on the increase. Last time I did the numbers on this the increase was an additional 7% of total attempts (that is you add 7 this year to last year's number). That means they are now throwing around 25% of their passes in the 11-30 yard range. To offer a comparison,. Ryan throws around 27% of his passes in that range, and Wilson throws more around 28+%. Last year though the Boras/Keenum Rams were doing that more around 18%.

I would imagine that with Goff they would exploit that more, especially since Quick and Britt are seriously upping their respective games.

But even with Keenum that's getting better.

Either way, there is no direct connection between redzone performance and throwing long. You obviously can't throw long in the redzone, so it's a different aspect of the game. Long passes do connect to scoring by setting up opportunities. The Rams would not have even gotten field goals in some cases without that advantage. But redzone performance has to be made better as its own, different, separate thing. Which I am sure it will be (made better).This has come up before. In 2012, at the bye, the Rams actually changed their redzone offense because they didn't like how it was going. As a result, Bradford became one of the highest rated qbs inside the 10, with a near 50% rate of TDs to attempts. So a Fisher team has done this before. That's just something that can be worked on and fixed. And it may also be that Goff will be better at it that Keenum. Still, I wouldn't rest too much on today's game. Like the Rams, the Bills are a great defense when it comes to points allowed (they rank 6th). (Seattle ranks 3rd, Arizona 12th...while Tampa ranks 31st). (Detroit, in comparison, is ranked 20th.)

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