Can looking back at draft history help the Rams?

[www.turfshowtimes.com] Can looking back at draft history help the Rams?
Or should they trade all their picks for a first round star?

By Venie Randy Soares Feb 14, 2023, 1:04pm CST

NFL: NFL Draft
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Over in the Fanpost section recently, an interesting philosophical proposition was offered. Should the Los Angeles Rams trade all their 2023 draft picks and move up to select a great player, in this case a tight end?

Like all good philosophical questions, it brings not a necessarily an objective answer, but rather more questions, opinions, and even rabbit holes to research, navigate, and consider. I decided to go back and take a deeper look at recent draft history, setting the baseline at 2012, the year Les Snead started to make selections for L.A.

If L.A. would consider trading all their draft picks for the highest Round 1 selection, using the projected Rams picks from overthecap.com and the draft/trade value chart from draftek.com (based on the Jimmy Johnson Model), #18 would be the best case scenario.

Some more quick citations. I used DraftHistory.com for the draft info and Pro football Reference.com for stats and All-pro awards. Positions are listed with number of players taken at #36 or before, since 2012.

Quarterback - 35
And 26 are still in the NFL. Of those, only Jordan Love (#26, ‘20) of the Green Bay Packers has not been named a starter and it appears that in a battle of former first rounders, Kenny Pickett (#20, ‘22) has passed Mitchell Trubisky (#2, ‘17) for the Pittsburgh Steelers job. Baker Mayfield (#1, ‘18), Sam Darnold (#3, ‘18), Jameis Winston (#1, ‘15), Marcus Mariota (#2, ‘15), and Teddy Bridgewater (#32, ‘14) all have had a modicum of success, but are not currently holding starting roles.

Nine are no longer in the game, Blake Bortles (#3, ‘14), Dwayne Haskins (#15, ‘19) Josh Rosen (#10, ‘18), Paxton Lynch (#26, ‘16), Johnny Manziel (#2, ‘14), EJ Manuel (#16, ‘13), Andrew Luck (#1, ‘12), Robert Griffin (#2, ‘12), and Brandon Weeden (#22, ‘12). Luck retired in the prime of a fine career, because of accumulated injuries. Bortles and Griffin both had a couple of good seasons, but fell off fast. The others never really produced much on the field.

Three have made it to the Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes (thrice) (#10, ‘17), Joe Burrow (#1, ‘20), and Jared Goff (#1, ‘16). Five earned All-Pro honors, Burrow, Mahomes, Josh Allen (#7, ‘18), Lamar Jackson (#32, ‘18), and Carson Wentz (#2, ‘16).

Super Bowl LVII - Kansas City Chiefs v Philadelphia Eagles
Patrick Mahomes celebrates his second Super Bowl win Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
Running back - 20
The only real misses were David Wilson (#32, ‘12), Trent Richardson (#3, ‘12) and TJ Yeldon (#36, ‘15) and they are all out of the league. Two others have been put out to pasture, Doug Martin (#31, ‘12) had a pair of 1400 yard sessions and Todd Gurley (#10, ‘15) was a weapon until premature injuries cut him short. Because of injuries, patience may be getting thin with Rashaad Penny (#27, ‘18).


Veteran stars Nick Chubb (#35, ‘18) Ezekiel Elliott (#4, ‘16), Leonard Fournette (#4, ‘17) Christian McCaffery (#8, ‘17) and (Josh Jacobs #24, ‘19) are all stars and still going strong, Upstarts Najee Harris (#24, ‘21), D’Andre Swift (#35, ‘20) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (#32, ‘20) offer production both running and receiving. Melvin Gordon (#15, ‘15) and Sony Michel (#31, ‘18) have shown value.

It looks like Saquon Barkley (#2, ‘18) and Travis Etienne (#25, ‘21) are all the way back from injury and on to more success, hopefully Breece Hall (#36, ‘22) and Javonte Williams (#35, ‘21) will quickly do the same.

Wide receiver - 53
Only 14 are out of the NFL and most of those are before 2017. Since that draft, only two of 27 picks have washed out, Henry Ruggs (#12, ‘20) and Calvin Ridley (#26, ‘18).

There seems to be a lot of talent amongst recent draft picks, Ja’Marr Chase (#5, ‘21), Justin Jefferson (#22, ‘20), Jaylen Waddle (#6, ‘21), and Justin Jefferson (#22, ‘20) are bonafide stars. Rookies Drake London (#8), Garrett Wilson (#10), and Chris Olave (#11) all had 70+ catches.

Greybeards Amari Cooper (#4, ‘15), Mike Evans (#7, ‘14), Brandin Cooks (#20, ‘14), and DeAndre Hopkins (#27, ‘13) all remain at the top of their game. Odell Beckham (#12, ‘14) still generates buzz as a star wide out and Cordarelle Patterson (#29, ‘13) continues to provide rushing, receiving and return production.

Notable misses were Justin Blackmon (#5, ‘13), Justin Hunter (#34, ‘14), Kevin White (#7, ‘15), Corey Coleman (#15), Will Fuller (#21), and Josh Doctson (#22) in 2016, John Ross (#9, ‘17), N’Keal Harry (#32, ‘19), and Jalen Reagor (#21, ‘20).

Tight end - 12
Only Coby Fleener (#2, ‘12), Eric Ebron (#10, 14), and Tyler Eifert (#21, ‘13) are out of the game. All nine left, Kyle Pitts (#4, ‘21), TJ Hockenson (#8, ‘19), Noah Fant (#20, ‘19), Hayden Hurst (#25, ‘18), OJ Howard (#19, ‘17), Evan Engram (#23, ‘17), David Njoku (#29, ‘17), Hunter Henry (#35, ‘16), and Zach Ertz (#35, ‘13) have all been solid pro’s.

While Ertz and Hockenson are the only members with All-Pro accolades, all have put up multiple seasons of good production. The exception being Howard, who has flashed potential, but has struggled with injuries.

Detroit Lions v Arizona Cardinals
TJ Hockenson hauls in a pass Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images
Center - 9
Eight are still in the NFL and five still toil in the pivot. Travis Frederick (#31, ‘13) retired, Cam Erving (#19, ‘15) has spent most of his career at tackle, while Austin Corbett (#33, ‘18) and Cesar Ruiz (#24, ‘20) have moved to guard. Four of the remaining five, rookie Tyler Linderbaum (#25, ‘22), Garrett Bradbury (#18, ‘19), Frank Raganow (#20, ‘18), and Ryan Kelly (#18, ‘16) are starters. Billy Price (#21, ‘18) has bounced between the field, bench and practice squads.


Three of the group have garnered All-Pro honors, Kelly, Raganow, and Travis Frederick (thrice).

Guard - 22
Fifteen are still active with eight-time All-pro Joel Bitonio (#35, ‘14) and five timer Quentin Nelson (#6, 2018) setting the gold standard. Chris Lindstorm (#14, ‘19), Brandon Scherff (#5, ‘15), and Kevin Zeitler (#27, ‘12) have also garnered post-season accolades. Isaiah Wynn (#23, ‘18), Will Hernandez (#34, ‘18), Germain Ifedi (#31, ‘16), Laken Tomlinson (#28, ‘15), Ereck Flowers (#9, ‘15), and Laken Tomlinson (#28, ‘15) are all still active.

Five guards, Kenyon Green (#15, ‘22), Zion Johnson (#17, ‘22), Cole Strange (#29, ‘22), Rashawn Slater (#13, ‘21), and Alijah Vera-Tucker (#14, ‘21) have been taken in the last two drafts and while production results have been mixed, all have won starting roles. Slater and Vera-Tucker missed time last year with serious injuries.

Of the six that are out of the NFL, David DeCastro (#24, ‘12) and Kyle Long (#20, ‘13) had solid careers and received All-pro honors. The remaining four were notable misses, Joshua Garnett (#28, ‘16), Xavier Su’-Filo (#33, ‘14), and both Jonathan Cooper (#7) and Chance Warmack (#10) in 2013.

Tackle - 44
Exemplifying the importance of the position, 15 tackles have been selected in the top ten overall, starting with Matt Kalil (#4) back in 2012. Then moving on to Eric Fisher (#1), Luke Joeckel (#2), and Lane Johnson (#4) ‘13, Greg Robinson (#2) and Jake Matthews (#6) ‘14, Ronnie Stanley (#6) and Jack Conklin (#9) ‘16, Mike McGlinchey (#9, ‘18), Andrew Thomas (#4) and Jedrick Wills (#10) ‘20, Penei Sewell (#7, ‘21), and three in ‘22, Ikem Ekwonu (#6), Evan Neal (#7), and Charles Cross (#9).

Has the the highest retention rate of all positions. Over all these 11 seasons only seven tackles are no longer playing, Matt Kalil (#4) and Riley Reiff (#23) in ‘12, Eric Fisher (#1), Joeckel and DJ Fluker (#11) in ‘13, Robinson, and Isaiah Wilson (#29, ‘20).

Of the remaining 37, not all have lived up to their draft position, but most are very good to good contributors. Large misses include Alex Leatherwood (#17, ‘21), Mekhi Becton (#11, ‘20), Wilson (#29, ‘20), Andre Dillard (#22, ‘19), Cedric Ogbuehi (#21, ‘15), Robinson (#2, ‘14), and Joeckel, (#2, ‘13).

Tennessee Titans v Philadelphia Eagles
Lane Johnson sets in pass protection Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
Defensive backs - 79
Combining both cornerbacks and safeties, 25 selections are out of the game, but most of those are pre-2016. The last three drafts have seen a bumper crop for the defensive secondary. In 2022, eight prospects were selected and seven were nabbed in both 2021 and 2020. Of those 22 only six have not taken over a starting role and two of those, Damon Arnette (#19) and Jeff Gladney (#31), both from 2020, are no longer playing.

There are still greybeards around and playing well, Stephon Gilmore (#10, ’12), Darius Slay (#36, ‘13), Harrison Smith (#29, ‘12) and Xavier Rhodes (#25, ‘13) are all 10+ year vets. Seven years plus of service stars go to Jalen Ramsey (#5, ‘16), Marcus Peters (#18, ‘15), Landon Collins (#33, ‘15), Kyle Fuller (#14, ‘14), and Jimmie Ward (#30, ‘14).

There are too many examples to list where top picks didn’t live up to their draft position and yes, quite a few have had journeyman careers, just not the dominance that fans expect from a Round 1 player. Some of the bigger misses include Jeff Okudah (#3, ‘20), Mike Hughes (#30, ‘17), Gareon Conley (#24, ‘17), Calvin Pryor (#18, ‘14), (Justin Gilbert #8, ‘14), and Dee Milliner (#9, ‘13).

Linebacker - 42
For this group, it should be noted that draft history.com places 3-4 outside linebackers (what most fans would consider edge players) onto the linebacker rolls. So, of that 42, this category includes recently drafted edges Jayson Oweh (#31) and Joe Tryon (#32) in ’21, as well as top pass rushers Josh Allen (#7, ‘19), Brian Burns (#16, ‘19), Hassan Reddick (#13, ‘17), TJ Watt (#30, ‘17), Leonard Floyd (#9, ‘16), Dante Fowler (#3, ‘15), Bud Dupree (#22, ‘15), and Khalil Mack (#5. ‘14). Darius Leonard (#36, ‘18) started his career on the edge before moving to an off ball role.

Many of the Round 1 linebackers are playing at a high level, both the youngsters and veterans. The vets are led by five-time All-pro CJ Mosley (#17, ‘14), Anthony Barr (#9, ‘14), and Myles Jack (#36, ‘16). Young stars Roquan Smith (#8, ‘18), Devin White (#5, ‘19), and Jordyn Brooks (#27, ‘20) already have multiple 100 tackle seasons under their belts. Micah Parsons (#12, ‘21) has been an All-pro in both of his first two seasons.

Of the 31 true off ball linebackers remaining, standouts Luke Kuechly (#9, ‘12), Dont’a Hightower (#25, ‘12), Alec Ogletree (#30, ‘13), Ryan Shazier (#15, ‘14) are no longer playing.

Notable misses include Jarrad Davis (#21), Charles Harris (#22) and Reuben Foster (#31) in ‘17), Darron Lee (#20, ‘16), Stephone Anthony (#25, ‘15), Jarvis Jones (#17, ‘13), Courtney Upshaw (#35, ‘12). I’ll add out of football Vic Beasley (#8, ‘15) and Jaylon Smith (#34, ‘16), they both had a couple of good years, but dropped off in a snap.

Cleveland Browns v Baltimore Ravens
CJ Mosley has earned five All-Pro Awards
Defensive end - 47
Giving the nine DEs selected in the 2021-22 draft’s a pass, this group has the highest miss percentage. Almost 1⁄3 of prospects fit into the “miss/near miss” category. Chase Young (#2, ‘20) had solid rookie season, but has only started 11 games since and there are many others.

K’Lavon Chaisson (#20, ‘20), Clelin Farrell (#4, ‘19), Rashan Gary (#12, ‘19), LJ Collier (#29, ‘19), Marcus Davenport ( #14, ‘18), Takkarist McKinley (#26, ‘17), Taco Charlton (#28, ‘17), Kevin Dodd (#33, ‘16), Shane Ray (#23, ‘15), Marcus Smith (#26, ‘14), Dion Jordan (#3, ‘13), Bjoern Werner (#24, ‘13) Datone Jones (#26, ‘13), Quinton Coples (#16, ‘12), Shea McClellin (#19, ‘12), Nick Perry (#28, ‘12).


There has been stars, too. Nick Bosa (#2) and Montez Sweat (#26) from ‘19, Bradley Chubb (#5, ‘18), Myles Garrett (#1, ‘17), Jonathan Allen (#17, ‘17), Joey Bosa (#3, ‘16), DeForest Buckner (#7, ‘16), Leonard Williams (#6, ‘15), and Jadaveon Clowney (#1, ‘14).

Defensive tackle - 32
Not surprisingly, because of physical nature of life in the NFL pits, half of this position players are either out of the league or barely played enough in 2022 to be considered active. It should be noted that almost all of those were before 2016.

The jury is still out on rookies Jordan Davis (#13), Devonte Wyatt (#28), and Logan Hall (#33), but Derrick Brown (#7. ‘20), Christian Wilkins (#13, ‘19), and Jeffery Simmons (#19, ‘19) have been solid.

There have been some misses, Malik McDowell (#35, ‘17), Robert Nkemdiche (#29, ‘16), Dominique Easley (#29, ‘14), Sharrif Floyd (#23) and Sylvester Williams (#28) in 2013 and to a lesser extent, Malcom Brown (#32, ‘15) and Mario Edwards (#35, ‘15).

Even with Aaron Donald (#13, ‘14) and his nine All-Pro berth’s taking up most of the air in this positional unit, eight other players have been able to garner prestigious rewards. Fletcher Cox (#12, ‘12) has nabbed three, while Quinnen Williams (#3, ‘19), Dexter Lawrence (#17, ‘19), Daron Payne (#13, ‘18) and the now-retired Dontari Poe (#11, ‘12) and Sheldon Richardson (#13, ‘13) all have one.

Does any of this really mean anything in the Rams case?
Probably not. In the Les Snead/Sean McVay era, pick #36 is the highest selection the Rams had since grabbing Gerald Everett at #44 back in 2017. It could be argued that since taking Jared Goff, a consensus top pick in 2016, L.A. has zigged when most fans and experts thought they would have zagged.

Even though the Rams have not done it in years, selecting an offensive lineman early seems to offer good value. Of the 75 drafted (at #36 or better) since 2012, 61 are still in the game (81.33%). Grabbing a top running back also makes sense, many fall down to where L.A. resides in 2022. Maybe not the consensus top back, but certainly on the top three.

If L.A. would consider trading all their draft picks for the highest Round 1 selection, using the projected Rams picks from overthecap.com and the