Who should Rams' top trade target be: Bradley Chubb or Brian Burns?

[theramswire.usatoday.com] Who should Rams' top trade target be: Bradley Chubb or Brian Burns?


Cameron DaSilva
October 26, 2022 11:55 am PT
The Rams are in the market for pass-rush help. After the Panthers turned down the Rams’ package of picks (and Cam Akers) for Christian McCaffrey, Los Angeles has plenty of ammo to land an edge rusher to help in the second half of the season.

It’s exactly what the Rams did in 2018 when they traded for Dante Fowler Jr. and again last year when they landed Von Miller. And coincidentally, they reached the Super Bowl both times.


When looking at the pass rushers who could be available, two players stand out from the rest: Brian Burns and Bradley Chubb. But which one should the Rams prioritize? That’s a tough question to answer because both players would help this team.

The case for Bradley Chubb

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Chubb is a former top-five pick, going fifth overall in the 2018 NFL draft. He’s dealt with injuries during his career, missing 12 games in 2019 and nine in 2021, but he’s been productive when he has been on the field. He’s averaged 0.54 sacks per game in his career and has already recorded 5.5 sacks in just seven games this season.

According to Pro Football Focus, Chubb has a pass-rush grade of 82.9 in 2022, which ranks 12th among all edge rushers. His 24 total pressures are the 17th-most among all edge rushers and he has a win rate of 15.4%.

By most measures, Chubb is one of the top young pass rushers in the NFL. And for that simple reason, the Rams should want him on their defense. Pairing him with Aaron Donald would be similar to the Miller-Donald combination the Rams had last season, and we all know how well that worked out.

Contractually, Chubb’s $12.72 million salary is fully guaranteed in 2022. However, since the Rams would only get him for half the season, his salary would be prorated over the remaining games, which could be nine or 10 – depending on when the Rams acquire him. He would cost them roughly between $6.7 million and $7.5 million.

Then in 2023, he becomes a free agent because he’s in the final year of his rookie deal. Miller and Fowler were also in the final years of their contract; Miller left in free agency and Fowler signed a one-year extension in 2019.

With Chubb, the Rams could either extend him and keep him for multiple more seasons, or they could let him walk and recoup a compensatory pick the way they’re going to with Miller. That pick wouldn’t come until 2024, however.

And when it comes to the compensation required to land Chubb, it’ll likely be in the range of multiple top-100 picks. It’s reasonable to think a second-, third- and fifth-round pick would get it done for the Rams.


The case for Brian Burns

(AP Photo/Rusty Jones)

Burns is two years younger than Chubb but has been in the NFL just one season less. In his career, he’s averaged 0.55 sacks per game, which is almost identical to Chubb’s average. He has five sacks in seven games this season, a half-sack fewer than Chubb, as well as seven QB hits – also one fewer than Chubb.

Burns’ 29 total pressures this season rank sixth among edge rushers but his pass-rush grade at PFF is only 66.1 – 51st at his position. That’s partly because his win rate is only 13.7%, which ties him with Fowler for 62nd among edge rushers.

What makes Burns a stronger target for any team that trades for him is his contract. He’s still signed through 2023, which is thanks to the fifth-year option. He’ll earn about $16 million next year, slightly more than what Chubb is making ($12.7 million) this year on his fifth-year option.

Burns’ final year is only guaranteed for injury, so if the Rams weren’t comfortable paying him $16 million in 2023, they could cut or trade him without penalty.

He would cost the Rams significantly less this year, though, with a base salary of just $2.3 million – a little more than half of which would be paid by the Rams. So in that sense, fitting him under the cap this year would be easier than Chubb.

The trade cost would be significantly higher, however. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Panthers already turned down an offer of two first-round picks. If that offer came from the Rams, it would have been their 2024 and 2025 first-rounders because they’re without a top-32 selection in 2023.

The Rams offered Cam Akers, second- and third-rounders in 2023 and fourth- and fifth-rounders in 2024 for McCaffrey, but the cost for Burns is likely even higher than that.


Verdict

(AP Photo/Kyusung Gong)

If the Rams land either of these players, the pass rush will be upgraded considerably. They’re both better than any edge rusher the Rams have and would take some attention away from Aaron Donald on the interior.

Leonard Floyd has been a dud this year, Terrell Lewis and Justin Hollins haven’t been effective and there’s no other meaningful help on the way – unless you consider Daniel Hardy a savior at OLB.

Given the current state of the Rams, Chubb would make more sense because he’d cost Los Angeles less in the draft capital department. Burns would be a better long-term option, being under contract through 2023, but he won’t exactly come cheap.

All things considered, I’d go after Chubb for Los Angeles, being the more realistic target and a better fit in the Rams defense.

Double team rate at Edge (x) by pass rush win rate at Edge (y).

-Potential trade candidate Bradley Chubb having a great year.

-Sacks have been there for Brian Burns, but win rate is a career-low.

-Brandon Graham would be No. 2 in Edge PRWR if he qualified. pic.twitter.com/GiMasHPdhw

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 26, 2022