Rams given 62% chance to make playoffs, have best odds to win NFC West

[theramswire.usatoday.com]

Rams given 62% chance to make playoffs, have best odds to win NFC West

Cameron DaSilva
September 8, 2021 7:31 am PT




Having made the playoffs in three of the last four years, the expectation is for the Rams to reach the postseason once again in 2021. Anything short of that will be seen as a major disappointment, especially after acquiring Matthew Stafford from the Lions.


Given their schedule and the fact that they play in the loaded NFC West, the Rams are hardly a lock to make the playoffs. Injuries happen, players regress and opponents play better than expected. But FiveThirtyEight still believes the Rams have a good shot to make the postseason and potentially make a run to the Super Bowl.

Using the site’s Elo forecast, which is based on season simulations, here are the chances FiveThirtyEight gives the Rams to make the playoffs, win the NFC West, be the top seed in the conference and win the Super Bowl.

Make playoffs: 62%
Win division: 32%
1st-round bye: 11%
Win Super Bowl: 6%
FiveThirtyEight’s average simulated season for the Rams was 10-7 with a point differential of plus-54, which is two games off from the Buccaneers, who have the best projected record at 12-5.

It’s easy to see that as of now, the Bucs and Packers are the Rams’ biggest threats in the NFC. The Seahawks and 49ers are also expected to be contenders, with projected records of 10-7, according to FiveThirtyEight, but the Rams still look like the best team in the division.

They have the best chance to win the NFC West, ahead of the 49ers (28%), Seahawks (27%) and Cardinals (13%). The Cardinals’ projected record is only 8-9 based on FiveThirtyEight’s simulated seasons, which is somewhat surprising.

The Buccaneers were given the best Super Bowl odds at 13%, followed by the Chiefs (12%), Bills (9%), Packers (8%) and Ravens (7%).